Another Oscars ceremony is upon us. I didn't do so poorly with my nominee predictions, and I hope I don't do too poorly with my winner predictions, either.
Lots of hemming and hawing and handwringing over whether One Battle After Another or Sinners will win the Big Prize, or, indeed, how much each is going to win. Makes sense: the former's been racking up one industry award after another, with top prizes from the British Academy, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, even the Art Directors and Costume Designers Guilds, while the latter is one of the Top Ten highest-grossing films of the year and the nomination leader. They're both great movies, career highs for their helmers: Paul Thomas Anderson, who's been nominated 14 times in various capacities for seven of his ten films, and Ryan Coogler, nominated for the first time as a writer-director despite this being his fifth film serving in such capacity (he's also up for Best Picture as a producer; previously, he was nominated as a producer for Judas and the Black Messiah and as a songwriter for "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). The feeling is that, despite the wave of precursor awards for One Battle After Another, there's no denying the passion for Sinners, especially in the actors branch: peep the standing ovations for the film's wins at The Actor Awards, mirroring other triumphant Best Picture longshots like Parasite and Crash, both of which went on to win Best Picture. Could its record-breaking sixteen nominations mean an equally impressive haul? Or is Hollywood eager to crown one of its most beloved and acclaimed indie auteurs, proving himself with a mega-budget studio picture tackling issues of The Day?
Speaking of the Actors Branch! Sean Penn and Jessie Buckley seem locked up, but what do we do with Supporting Actress or, even more so, Actor? The buzz all year seemed to suggest Timothée Chalamet would easily sprint his way to the Oscar for his best work yet, but, significantly, only the Golden Globes and Broadcast Film Critics have come through for him. Otherwise, the industry's been split, and of Oscar's five nominees, only Leonardo DiCaprio - the only previous winner and the lead of the Best Picture favorite! - has no precursor honors to his name. As for Supporting Actress, it could be another field of battle in the One Battle vs. Sinners war, or Weapons' Amy Madigan could continue her streak and win for a role that actually crossed into pop culture. Skeptics say horror roles rarely win Oscars and she's her film's only nomination, but if a role like that is popular enough to be nominated in the first place...
Anyway, all that is juggling about in my brain as I make these final predictions: