It's the beginning of April, which means it's once again time to try to predict next year's Academy Award nominees - way too early!
Last year, on April 23rd, I accurately predicted four Best Picture nominees, two Best Director nominees, seven Acting nominees (albeit one in the wrong category), and three Screenplay nominees. Among my proudest predix: Sentimental Value in Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Actress. Sometimes I get lucky like that...
This year, who knows? Here's what I think could be up for the Oscars in Picture, Director, Acting, and Screenplay:
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Being Heumann
Digger
Disclosure Day
Fatherland
Josephine
Michael
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Tenzing
Being Heumann is a biopic of disability rights activist Judith Heumann, including the 504 Sit-in of 1977; it is the first film by Sian Heder since CODA won all three of its nominations, including Best Picture, in 2022. Digger is, apparently, a comedy about the world's most powerful man reacting to a disaster he's helped create; it is the eighth feature film by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, whose seven previous films have all been nominated for Oscars, and this team-up with Tom Cruise is possibly the buzziest here. Disclosure Day has Steven Spielberg returning to a tale of extraterrestrial life, and if it's a big enough hit, I can see it getting in. Fatherland is a German film, about a road trip taken by author Thomas Mann and his daughter; filmmaker Pawel Pawlikowski's previous two films have done well with Oscar, I expect the trend to continue. Josephine was probably the buzziest film at Sundance, a drama about a child who witnesses a rape and the aftermath; the unflinching filmmaking and critical praise could be enough to get it here. Michael is the biopic of Michael Jackson from the same producer who brought us Bohemian Rhapsody, it's going to be huge, I've no doubt of that, and they are going to campaign the hell out of it. The Odyssey adapts the classic epic, the first film by Christopher Nolan since Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. Project Hail Mary is out right now, it's critically praised, it's a hit, expect it to be nominated. The Social Reckoning is Aaron Sorkin's followup to The Social Network, this time focusing on the 2021 Facebook leak and whistleblower Frances Haugen; did you know 1993's Malice is the only film Sorkin's worked on that did not get an Academy Award nomination of some kind? Finally, Tenzing is the narrative feature debut of documentarian Jennifer Peedom, a biopic of sherpa Tenzing Norgay, who guided Sir Edmund Hillary up Mt. Everest; this one's probably my greatest shot in the dark, but I love a Mt. Everest story, even if the Academy never has...yet!
Best Director
Beth de Araújo, Josephine
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Phil Lord & Chris Miller, Project Hail Mary
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Beth de Araújo's frank and complex (so I hear) work on Josephine is already getting high praise following Sundance. Alejandro G. Iñárritu has already won twice and, I suspect, has what it takes to be the rare three-time winner, a feat only achieved by Frank Capra, William Wyler, and John Ford (who won four times!). Phil Lord & Chris Miller consistently make fun movies that are popular with critics and audiences, this could finally be their time to get a much-deserved nomination. Cristian Mungiu is a Romanian filmmaker who's always done well at Cannes, and Oscar has been honoring such filmmakers more often of late; could Fjord, a thriller starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, get him a rare lone director nod (in the same vein, I'm thinking, as Pawel Pawlikowski with Cold War and Thomas Vinterberg with Another Round). Christopher Nolan will, I think, continue his Oppenheimer streak with some halo nods for his latest.
Best Actor
Tom Cruise, Digger
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Genden Phuntsok, Tenzing
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Maybe we're all assuming too much, too soon, but it does feel like Tom Cruise is poised for a Paul Newman-style Oscar win: Honorary one year, undeniable performance the next...and he's never won! Ryan Gosling is the center of Project Hail Mary, it doesn't work without him, he's on screen the whole time, he's in if the movie's in. Once again betting big on Tenzing and its lead actor, Tibetan-Chinese Genden Phuntsok. How close do you think Andrew Scott came to being nominated for All of Us Strangers or Blue Moon, and could he finally get in for playing British actor Ian Charleson, who died of AIDS following a legendary run as Hamlet. German actor Hanns Zischler plays Thomas Mann in Fatherland, and I don't know, it just feels right.
Best Actress
Joan Collins, The Bitter End
Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, Untitled Musical
Oh, I've been following The Bitter End for a good while, I'm very excited for it, and I'm very excited to see Joan Collins play Wallis Simpson in her final years, as she starts to lose control of her life to a manipulative lawyer. Prima Facie has done gangbusters in the theatre scene as a one-woman show, nabbing Jodie Comer a Tony Award; can Cynthia Erivo finally get her Oscar in the film version? With a stacked year including Rose, Project Hail Mary, and Digger, Sandra Hüller's return to Dolby Theater may depend on her performance as Thomas Mann's daughter, in her native language. Ruth Madeley takes on the juicy role of disability rights activist Judith Heumann in Being Heumann, sure to be a humdinger of a role. Jesse Eisenberg did well as writer-director of A Real Pain, which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar; his follow-up is an as-yet-untitled musical comedy about a woman, played by Julianne Moore, who experiences the dark side of showbiz via a community theater production...which just sounds fun!
Best Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo, Michael
Paul Giamatti, Untitled Musical
Guy Pearce, Ink
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Three "real person" performances: Colman Domingo as Jackson patriarch Joe Jackson in Michael, which seems like one of those on-paper no-brainer wins; Guy Pearce as Rupert Murdoch in Ink, based on a play about Murdoch's purchase of The Sun; and Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Reckoning. I think Paul Giamatti plays the manipulative community theater director in the Eisenberg movie, which sounds like something he could really sink his teeth into. And Channing Tatum is getting some of the best notices of his career for playing the father in Josephine - and underrated actor who I think people will vote for if the right performance comes along...and this one seems to be it.
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, Tenzing
Madeline Delp, Being Heumann
Nia Long, Michael
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Isabella Rossellini, The Bitter End
I admit, I probably would not have known about Tenzing had I not looked up Caitriona Balfe's upcoming filmography; I suspect she just missed being nominated for playing the mum in Belfast, while in Tenzing, she plays a woman who organizes the trips to Everest. Madeline Delp plays Kitty Cone, the real civil rights activist who teamed up with Judy Heumannt to lead the 504 sit-in - and from what I've read about Kitty Cone, wow! Nia Long plays Michael's mother, she's worked with everybody, sometimes all it takes is the right role for a veteran to finally get their due. Speaking of - the trailer for Wild Horse Nine didn't excite me at all, but Parker Posey being doing the damn thing for decades and the Academy seems to like Martin McDonagh's work. Finally, Isabella Rossellini has a juicy role as Wallis Simpson's scheming attorney in The Bitter End - the only question now is category placement...
Best Original Screenplay
Digger
Fatherland
The Invite
Josephine
Tenzing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Being Heumann
The Odyssey
Prima Facie
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
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