Sunday, April 23, 2017

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Too-Early Oscar Predictions

Every year at The Film Experience, Nathaniel Rogers predicts the Oscar contenders a year in advance - he calls them his April Foolish Predictions, and they are always exciting, thought-provoking, and fun. While I missed last year, I usually try to play along with Nathaniel, and the rest of the Oscar blogosphere, with some early bird predictions of my own. Mine may not be as thorough as Nathaniel's (he even predicts foreign film!), but I'd be disappointed if I didn't join in the fun!

The contenders for next year's Oscars may be....

Best Picture

Anywhere between five and ten films can be nominated in this category. If five there be:

The Greatest Showman
The Post

Keeping in mind that Untouchable is currently slated for a 2018 release date - but since they've already been filming for some time, I wouldn't be surprised if they moved it to November/December. Remember when Crazy Heart was a Spring 2010 release, then suddenly became a late 2009 contender, and eventually, winner?

[the rest after the jump]

If more than five, add any or all of these titles:

The Current War
Darkest Hour
The Glass Castle

2015 prediction: 4/8 - I got Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Spotlight, and The Revenant

Best Director
Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
Todd Haynes, Wonderstruck
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

I'm not feeling too bullish on the Spielberg presence, but everyone else is either a new name to us (hi, Gracey) or a never-nominee that's past due for the honor.

2015 prediction: 1/5 - Thomas McCarthy for Spotlight

Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
Bryan Cranston, Untouchable
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Cranston, Gyllenhaal, and Andrew Garfield are all wheelchair-bound this year - Gyllenhaal gets a true story about a Boston marathon bombing victim, while Cranston's in an American remake of the French film The Intouchables, which made quite a bit of waves in 2011. Can that success repeat? Oldman's transforming, Jackman's singing again, and Boseman - surely they're going to nominate him at some point for all these biopics?

2015 prediction: 2/5 - Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Redmayne for Danish Girl

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Meryl Streep, The Post

Difficult, this one. No Best Actress category ever skews this...mature. Should I be more confident in the chances for Larson, Ronan, Claire Foy, etc.? Possibly. But this is how I see it for the moment.

2015 prediction: 2/5 - Rampling in 45 Years, Ronan in Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Kevin Hart, Untouchable
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Michael Shannon, The Current War

There's a chance that megastar Hart would campaign as co-lead with Cranston (who you know isn't going supporting), but we'll have to see.

2015 prediction: 1/5 - Rylance in Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Vanessa Redgrave, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Naomi Watts, The Glass Castle

2015 prediction: 1/5 - Vikander in The Danish Girl

Best Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
Downsizing - Alexander Payne / Jim Taylor
Get Out - Jordan Peele
The Post - Liz Hannah
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh

2015 prediction: 3/5 - Bridges of Spies, Inside Out, Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - Walter Fasano/Luca Guadagnino/James Ivory, from the novel by André Aciman
The Glass Castle - Destin Cretton/Andrew Lanham/Marti Noxon, from the memoir by Jeannette Walls
Mudbound - Dee Rees/Virgil Williams, from the novel by Hillary Jordan
Untouchable - Jon Hartmere, from the screenplay by Olivier Nakache/Eric Toledano
Wonderstruck - Brian Selznick, from his novel

2015 prediction: 1/5 - Brooklyn

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