Super Last-Minute Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

 

It's the most up-in-the-air category this season, making for one of the most exciting Best Picture races in history. Best Picture is decided by a preferential ballot system that I am not going to explain but recommend you look up, which for many means that the least divisive nominee with the most fans wins - thus, The Shape of Water, which few dislike and which won the big prize at the PGA Awards and DGA Awards. But each Oscar year tends to follow a pattern, meaning your Best Picture winner is most likely whoever's won the most going in - thus, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, which triumphed at the SAG Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTA Awards. But also, the past four winners first triumphed in the Best Film category at the Independent Spirit Awards - thus, Get Out, which just became the latest to win that honor on the eve of the Academy Awards.

(twists and turns, after the jump....)

February Plans

Starting Sunday, we'll take a look at the cinematic year of 1982: reviews of over 60 films, a retrospective on that year's Oscars, and my personal picks. Why go back 35 years to that specific Oscar ceremony? Because...

The three films with the most nominations were a fantasy drama, a historical epic, and a socially conscious dramedy

 

Steven Spielberg helmed a Best Picture nominee

Two of the Best Director nominees started as actors

The frontrunner for Best Actor played a major political figure in a British-made biopic

Meryl Streep was up for Best Actress

Blade Runner disappointed at the box office but was nominated for its visuals

The best musical of the year received only one Oscar nomination

It all starts Sunday with a week's worth of capsule reviews, with Oscar talk February 12th.

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The Nominees Are....

Here we go!

I swear this is my favorite morning. Beats Christmas every time, no matter how frustrating it sometimes is.

Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis hosting the announcement, as the Academy continues trying new things to make this more of an event.

Nominees after the jump.....

Oscar Predictions

The nominees for the 90th Academy Awards are announced tomorrow! Here's who I think gets in...

Best Picture

Number of Nominees: 8 (getting that right is worth a point)

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible spoiler: The Florida Project (half a point if it gets in)

In My Dreams: The Lost City of Z

The remaining categories after the jump.....

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Jordan Peele, Get Out

In My Dreams: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

In My Dreams: Charlie Hunnam in The Lost City of Z

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

In My Dreams: Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Rob Morgan in Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: Jennifer Ehle in A Quiet Passion

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name

The Disaster Artist

The Lost City of Z

Molly's Game

Mudbound

Best Score

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: Jane

Best Original Song

Beauty and the Beast - "Evermore"

Call Me By Your Name - "Visions of Gideon"

Coco - "Remember Me"

The Greatest Showman - "This Is Me"

Mudbound - "Mighty River"

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: First They Killed My Father

Best Production Design

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: mother!

Best Film Editing

Dunkirk

Get Out
I, Tonya

The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Jane

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

The Greatest Showman

Phantom Thread

Victoria and Abdul

In My Dreams: Battle of the Sexes

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bright

Darkest Hour

Wonder

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Best Sound Mixing

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman - Chile

In the Fade - Germany

Loveless - Russia

The Square - Sweden

The Wound - South Africa

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

The LEGO Batman Movie

Loving Vincent

Best Documentary

Chasing Coral

City of Ghosts

Faces Places

Icarus

Jane

No idea with the animated shorts, so I just kind of threw darts...

Best Animated Short

"Cradle"

"Fox and the Whale"

"In the Heartbeat"

"Lost Property Office"

"Negative Space"

Best Documentary Short

"116 Cameras"

"Alone"

"Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405"

"Heroin(e)"

"Ten Meter Tower"

Best Live Action Short

"DeKalb Elementary"

"Facing Mecca"

"My Nephew Emmett"

"Rise of a Star"

"The Silent Child"

I am very much looking forward to being completely and woefully wrong tomorrow!

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The 2017 Hollmann Awards: Part Two

Yesterday, we began with music, presented a bulk of the acting categories, and spread the wealth. Today, the remaining nine categories for the 2017 Hollmann Awards - including Best Picture. Again, order was determined by random drawing. Click here for a full listing of the nominees in each category.

On with the show...

Best Cinematography

1. Blade Runner 2049

Roger Deakins

2. The Lost City of Z

Darius Khondji

3. Mudbound

Rachel Morrison

4. Atomic Blonde

Jonathan Sela

5. First They Killed My Father

Anthony Dod Mantle

After the jump: Original Song, Actress, Best Picture of the Year - and more!

The 2017 Hollmann Awards: Part One

It's the 2017 Hollmann Awards in 2018! With eighteen categories to get through, I'm dividing things up over two days. The order of categories was decided by lottery, much like the nominations - and if you haven't taken a look at those, please do; they come with a full list of the honorees in each category.

Now, on with the show....

Best Score

1. Jane

Philip Glass

2. Battle of the Sexes

Nicholas Britell

3. Phantom Thread

Jonny Greenwood

4. The Lost City of Z

Christopher Spelman

5. The Shape of Water

Alexandre Desplat

Makeup, Supporting Actor and Actress, and much more, after the jump....

The 2017 Hollmann Awards Nominations

Presenting the nominees for the 2017 Hollmann Awards! 128 films considered in 18 categories, whittled down to just five spots each. The order of the categories was decided by writing them down on pieces of paper, crumpling them, scrambling them up, and selecting willy-nilly. Not even Best Picture is safe from the randomness.

The nominees are...after the jump.

Revolutionary, Cinema

The moment I heard about 1987: When the Day Comes, I knew I had to see it. The film's plot - the true story of the suspicious death of 21-year-old student Park Jong-chul in police custody and its subsequent coverup - and the promise of a sprawling examination of the events from the POV of reporters, government officials, activists, and lawyers, brought to mind Costa-Gavras' incendiary Z (the 1969 film that also depicted the murder and coverup of a leftist activist). This is the event that, along with the Gwangju Massacre (depicted in A Taxi Driver) and President Chun Doo-hwan's deferment of direct presidential elections, led to the June Uprising demonstrations that helped bring South Korea out of the grip of military dictatorships and into democracy. I had to see it.

Alas, it was not to be. December 29th, I went out to catch the new release at CGV Cinemas...and was informed that for its first week of exhibition, 1987 would be exclusively screened sans subtitles. Fair enough! The same thing happened with The Fortress earlier this year, and Missing Woman the year before. Ah, well, so it would not make it to my 2017 Top Ten or Hollmann Awards, but at least I would be able to catch it a week later, away from the glut of movie screenings that the last two weeks of December tend to become, able to appreciate the film on its own merits. And this morning, I did just that.

My reaction, after the jump....

Who's Getting A Globe?

The 75th Golden Globes are tonight! I have seen all but nine of the movies nominated - Jesus, when I see that number, it feels like a lot. Oh, well.

Anyway, in the 14 film categories: what will win, and what deserves to win? Let's go through it!

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: The Shape of Water. You wouldn't think the human-monster love story would be the least divisive movie of any lineup, but 2017 was full of surprises.

Should win: The Post. Solid studio filmmaking, stellar cast, surprisingly fun.

WHO WON: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Goddamn.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name. I don't see a lot stopping his awards season momentum. People love him! And while Gary Oldman's playing Winston Churchill, if the HFPA liked him, this probably wouldn't be his first nomination.

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread. So petty! So hilarious!

WHO WON: Boy was I wrong! Oldman wins!

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water. Even though Frances McDormand may be overdue for a win from the Globes (it's never happened!), the group's international makeup will probably benefit Hawkins, who also won their Musical/Comedy prize for Happy-Go-Lucky nine years ago.

Should win: Hawkins. Besides the rest of that mishegas above, she's also really fucking good in her movie. This and Maudie are great showcases for her superlative physicality.

WHO WON: Ai-yi-yi, McDormand.

Comedy categories and more, after the jump....