Super Last-Minute Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

 

It's the most up-in-the-air category this season, making for one of the most exciting Best Picture races in history. Best Picture is decided by a preferential ballot system that I am not going to explain but recommend you look up, which for many means that the least divisive nominee with the most fans wins - thus, The Shape of Water, which few dislike and which won the big prize at the PGA Awards and DGA Awards. But each Oscar year tends to follow a pattern, meaning your Best Picture winner is most likely whoever's won the most going in - thus, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, which triumphed at the SAG Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTA Awards. But also, the past four winners first triumphed in the Best Film category at the Independent Spirit Awards - thus, Get Out, which just became the latest to win that honor on the eve of the Academy Awards.

(twists and turns, after the jump....)

The Nominees Are....

Here we go!

I swear this is my favorite morning. Beats Christmas every time, no matter how frustrating it sometimes is.

Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis hosting the announcement, as the Academy continues trying new things to make this more of an event.

Nominees after the jump.....

Tales of the Weird and True

It's Awards Season and Star Wars weekend, which means a lot to talk about. Beginning with...

The Shape of Water

dir: Guillermo del Toro

scr: Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor

Del Toro's adult fairy tale is a dreamy ballet of misfits and monsters, a valentine to the bizarre that's directed right at my heart. Yes, they made that aquatic creature sexy - you could bounce a coin off it - but they also made every character, hero and villain alike, a fully-realized, complicated person that still exists within this fantasy world. Magical.

The Last Jedi , The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, and more, after the jump....

Too-Early Oscar Predictions

Every year at The Film Experience, Nathaniel Rogers predicts the Oscar contenders a year in advance - he calls them his April Foolish Predictions, and they are always exciting, thought-provoking, and fun. While I missed last year, I usually try to play along with Nathaniel, and the rest of the Oscar blogosphere, with some early bird predictions of my own. Mine may not be as thorough as Nathaniel's (he even predicts foreign film!), but I'd be disappointed if I didn't join in the fun!

The contenders for next year's Oscars may be....

Best Picture

Anywhere between five and ten films can be nominated in this category. If five there be:

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

The Post

Untouchable

Wonderstruck

Keeping in mind that Untouchable is currently slated for a 2018 release date - but since they've already been filming for some time, I wouldn't be surprised if they moved it to November/December. Remember when Crazy Heart was a Spring 2010 release, then suddenly became a late 2009 contender, and eventually, winner?

[the rest after the jump]