And Now the End Is Near: Best of 2011

Yes, friends, it's the annual year-end Top 25 Films Countdown. These lists are always fluid, always changing. When I look back at last year's Fifteen Honorable Mentions and the Ten Best, I find myself second-guessing the placements of The Runaways and The American (should be higher), Piranha 3D and The Kids Are All Right (should be lower), but I still feel confident that the titles themselves are right. Maybe I would now switch out For Colored Girls and Never Let Me Go for The Runaways and Get Low. But then I remember certain moments of each film and think, "Hm. Maybe not."

I've still got so much to see, so much that could still qualify for the Hollmann Awards (dare I limit it to movies I actually saw in 2011?). Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Win Win, Rango, Melancholia, Meek's Cutoff, Warrior, Pariah, Jane Eyre, Captain America, The Housemaid, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Margin Call, Coriolanus, A Better Life...these are the films I still need to see. It just didn't happen for me.

In all, I saw 82 films this year, a pretty good number I think, though nowhere near the hundred-plus that more energetic writers manage to pull off. If I waited until I saw the fourteen listed, of course, I would have 95, which is still close, but....

Ach. What of it? There are still only 25 slots, meaning that I had to cruelly, painfully cast off 57 other flicks. Ok, maybe only 51, since there are seven films that I found to be just terrible (Another Earth, Bride Flight, Cat Run, The Descendants, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, Jack & Jill, In Time, The Robber). Suffice to say, I did have to whittle down, justify positioning, try to remember which ones I enjoyed, which ones fell short. I tried to keep movies I wouldn't watch again, movies I only liked but didn't love, movies that I barely remember, off the list entirely. I tried my best. I'm sure that by next year, I'll have decided that The Big Year really did deserve a mention in my Top Ten. Doubtful, even though I know I'll buy it, but perceptions and opinions change with time.

Enough of that bullshit. You want to see the list. Ladies and gentlemen, the ranked list of the fifteen semi-finalists; or, 25-11 of the Top 25.

What, Already??: April Oscar Predictions

It's now time for that foolish, dumb, silly game of trying to predict Oscar nominees for the next season in April. A true Russian roulette, if ever there was one...besides the one that already exists. I've decided to predict screenplay categories as well this year, and I was almost tempted to do cinematography, but nobody knows that shit sight unseen. Come on. Let's be real.

Now, why do I do these in April? Because every April, Nathaniel at The Film Experience does it, ending it with the Actress Psychic Contest. If you can guess the five Best Actress nominees this far in advance, you get a capital p Prize! EEEEE! I got 3/5 last year, correctly predicting Bening, Kidman and Lawrence; I had Naomi Watts (Fair Game) and Robin Wright (The Conspirator) in my other two slots. But that was then, this is now, so let's roll on.

PICTURE

Albert Nobbs 
A Dangerous Method 
The Ides of March 
The Iron Lady 
J. Edgar 
My Week with Marilyn 
Super 8 
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 
The Tree of Life 
The War Horse

Oh, sure, J. Edgar is slated for 2012, but if I'm right about Mr. Eastwood, that movie will be in cineplexes by late December with three National Board of Review awards under its belt.

Last year: 4/10 - The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech

DIRECTOR

David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Simon Curtis, My Week with Marilyn
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, The War Horse

I predict Cronenberg will get that finally-recognized-auteur slot, joining Curtis as a first-time nominee. Eastwood works his magic after a few years' absence -- though expect Clooney as a possible spoiler. Spielberg gets in because there's no way he won't go justice to the source material (good stuff), and Malick may be the one to beat! He said without having seen a thing.
Last year: 1/5 - Tom Hooper, The King's Speech


ACTRESS

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Anne Hathaway, One Day
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Close is welcomed back into the fold, Streep and Williams get biopic nods, Olsen is the indie slot, Hathaway gets the second nomination needed in order to clinch the Overdue! status sure to come when her Judy Garland biopic hits in 2013 (or thereabouts).
Last year: 3/5 - Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone


ACTOR

George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 

Fassbender's packed year is sure to get him some recognition, and hopefully Oldman's turn as a legendary literary figure will net him his first nomination. Gosling will finally get a second nomination, right? He does great work every year, and every year....
Last year: 1/5 - Colin Firth, The King's Speech


SUPPORTING ACTOR

John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Peter Mullan, The War Horse
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Eddie Redmayne, My Week with Marilyn

I am convinced in my head that leading man Redmayne will be pushed to supporting to (a) increase his chances of getting a nomination, and (b) increase Williams' chances of getting the gold. Mullan's character, that of the drunken father, is one of the best characters in War Horse, and he's also due for recognition. I'm predicting Hawkes to be this year's Jeremy Renner ("Whoa! Back so soon?"). And then there's also Mortensen and Plummer. I'm least confident about this lineup.
Last year: 2/5 - Christian Bale, The Fighter; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech 

 
SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Bellucci, The Whistleblower
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Judi Dench, J. Edgar
Elizabeth Reaser, Young Adult
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus 

I'm equally confident in this lineup. I wasn't going to predict Chastain, since no actor has ever been nominated for a Malick film, but in the end I thought, "To hell with it."
Last year: 3/5 - Amy Adams, The Fighter; Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter 


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

J. Edgar - Dustin Lance Black
Martha Macy May Marlene - Sean Durkin
The Tree of Life - Terrence Malick
Win Win - Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tiboni
Young Adult - Diablo Cody

McCarthy finally gets accepted into the club, Cody and Black get welcome back hugs, Durkin fills that indie slot, Malick wins.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Albert Nobbs - Glenn Close, John Banville
A Dangerous Method - Christopher Hampton
My Week with Marilyn - Adrian Hodges
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - Peter Straughan, Bridget O'Connor
The War Horse - Lee Hall, Richard Curtis

A passion project, three directing nominees, and a respectable adult thriller.