This was a tough field to narrow down, as this year was full of old favorites and new discoveries. Here’s to the ones that didn't make the final cut: 28 Days Later, Cold Mountain, Elephant, House of 1000 Corpses, The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Phone Booth.
It may be the only time a Best Picture winner was correctly predicted by all two years in advance. When The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring was released to critical hosannas but A Beautiful Mind won Best Picture, we all looked at each other and said, "They're saving it for the third one." Sure enough, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King swept the season (I believe LAFCA was the only holdout, giving its Best Picture prize to American Splendor). When Oscar Night came, we all saw it coming:
Not a nailbiter, though that's a shame because all five nominees are pretty damn great. The nominees for Best Picture, ranked from 5th to 1st:
When Sean Penn won Best Actor in 2003, it was the first and, to my memory, the only time I’d ever seen the host himself apologize to one of the other nominees. That’s because while Penn’s victory wasn’t a total shock - there was a late surge of support for him and the film - conventional wisdom at the time had Bill Murray as the inevitable winner. Both Penn and Murray won Golden Globes, but Murray had also been crowned by the New York critics, the LA critics, the Indie Spirits, and BAFTA, an actual industry group! The only other nominee to be honored by people who’d actually vote for the Oscars was Johnny Depp at the SAG Awards, and many felt the nomination was the win for him. Murray was a beloved comedy icon who many agreed probably just missed on a Supporting Actor nomination for Rushmore, it seemed inevitable that the Academy would reward him and his career. For once, the inevitable did not occur:
Here are the performances, ranked from 5th to 1st:
I will never forget that photo of Charlize Theron in full Aileen Wuornos drag, clad in a prison jumpsuit with hands clasped while awaiting mercy in a courtroom. It's the picture everyone used to say "this is our next Oscar winner", the picture everyone chose to say "gorgeous women can only win Oscars win they de-glam!" Hell, in 2006, the Academy Awards itself made a joke by saying Charlize Theron was once more "ugging it up" for North Country. If you read "We Predict the Winners" articles from the era, everyone tries to build suspense by saying it's a narrow race between Theron and Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give...and everyone predicts Charlize Theron. I was three days from turning 15 and even I knew who'd win:
Who should have won? The performances ranked, by me, from 5th to 1st:
What do you look for when it comes to “best” directing? I confess, for me it’s about consistency: all the performers, all the “crafts”, even the rhythm of the edit (not always under the aegis of the director, by the way), are on the same page, delivering the same tone. If it’s slow and meditative, you’re not bored, because everyone is doing their job to make that purposeful instead of plodding. If it’s broad and loud, no one is over-the-top but everyone is Stylized, Theatrical. You believe in the world of the film because the director has worked on every element to make it real.
I think that's what everyone was responding to in 2003 when Peter Jackson made his inevitable ascent to the Dolby stage, a consistency that spanned 438 days of shooting, three years of release (and reshoots), a cast and crew of thousands, and beaucoup box office. Everyone knew they were waiting for the third movie to give him his reward:
As you see, he wasn't the only nominee, and nobody turned in a bad movie. Ranking them is more a matter of who you love most than who you like least. Here they are, ranked from 5th to 1st.
What a lineup, huh? We have Shohreh Aghdashloo giving a performance that made American critics and Hollywood sit up and take notice, Patricia Clarkson riding the momentum of 2002’s Far from Heaven and her other 2003 indie The Station Agent, Marcia Gay Harden returning in a Best Picture nominee after her shocking Oscar win in 2000, Holly Hunter back for the first time since her 1993 double-header, and Renee Zellweger on her third consecutive nomination after just missing out on a win the previous year (so we assume, anyway). Zellweger had the ol' "When are we giving it to her already?" going for her, and just like Tim Robbins, her win was considered "in the bag":
Much of the 2003 race felt like an inevitability. We all knew Best Picture and Best Director were locked for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. We all knew Renee Zellweger was getting Best Supporting Actress. And we all knew the winner for Best Supporting Actor was gonna be Tim Robbins. And we were right:
