Roger Ebert said that "everybody from the Vegas oddsmakers to the espresso jockey at Starbucks can tell you that Gladiator, Russell Crowe, Julia Roberts, Albert Finney, and Kate Hudson are at the head of the pack." While he went against that "common wisdom" in some of his final predictions, he held to the impression that "the overwhelming favorite is Kate Hudson." It is a common refrain you read when researching this year: Hudson is the heart of Almost Famous, she glows, she's charming, she's Goldie Hawn's daughter, and wouldn't it be neat if they both won in the same category 31 years apart?
She was one of four names that kept showing up everywhere: her Almost Famous co-star, who won prizes for both that film and her turn in Wonder Boys; Judi Dench, thought to be the benificiary of Miramax's Chocolat campaign, making it the third of five consecutive Weinstein-backed nominations for the Dame; and Julie Walters, whose chain-smoking ballet mistress in Billy Elliot was an audience favorite. All were nominated alongside Hudson. None were thought to stand a chance, even though, while she was also nominated at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and for Best Lead Actress at the British Academy Awards, the only major "precursor" she won was the Golden Globes.
But hey, influence and bellwethers change over the years - remember, it used to be "common wisdom" to go with the New York Critics' pick...though that did turn out to be true this year. Alongside the aforementioned quartet was Pollock's Marcia Gay Harden, a name and performance little bandied about after her NYFCC win at the beginning of December. Her "fifth slot" was up for grabs among a number of contenders: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon's Zhang Ziyi (BAFTA nominee, Indie Spirits winner, LAFCA runner-up), Traffic's Catherine Zeta-Jones (Golden Globe nominee), Quills' Kate Winslet (SAG nominee), maybe even longer shots like Small Time Crooks' Elaine May (winner at the National Society of Film Critics, I'm guessing because they had little opportunity to award her over the years) or Chuck & Buck's Lupe Ontiveros (National Board of Review winner!, Indie Spirits nominee). But the fifth spot was Harden's, with many assuming the nomination was the award for putting in great work in a little-seen film. What a twist - what a thrill:
Had I a ballot, this is how I'd rank them: