Too Little, Too Late

I swear I haven't watched the SAG Awards. I swear to Heaven I haven't, since I've been visiting my other favorite cousin all evening. These predictions aren;t just last-minute...they're downright late. I have recorded it, so I'm going to watch it before I read blogs and Twitter. But here's how I think it went down:

BEST ENSEMBLE: The Fighter
BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
BEST ACTRESS: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE: Inception

And, hey, who cares about TV? I will if I get a job with them, but since I can't come up with them off the top of my head, I won't bother predicting them. Let's see if I'm right an hour in the past.

And the Nominees Actually Are...

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone 

9/10

Toy Story 3 did make it, The Town got left off, making True Grit the only Best Picture nominee that did not make my Top 25 list.  Cool beans!

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
The Coen Bros, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

4/5

I KNEW NOLAN WAS THE VULNERABLE ONE! I don't remember if I wrote it here, but I know I did on other blogs.  I mean, I still predicted him, but I knew if anyone was going to get left off, it would be him and not David O. Russell. Everyone underestimated that man. Not this guy.

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

3/5

Does this mean Biutiful will finally come out here? Wish Duvall was in there...and Wahlberg. I should have gone with Bridges, at least. That was a lock, but I did not belieeeeve!

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle William, Blue Valentine

4/5

Um, I can live with Steinfeld being bumped to supporting if it gets Michelle Williams her much-deserved nomination. Strong roster this year!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

4/5

My hunch for John Hawkes paid off, BUT I thought it would be at the cost of Jeremy Renner. Alas, my own nominee Andrew Garfield misses out. You'll live to die another day, Andy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

3/5

Kunis and Spacek (wild guess) left out for category fraud Steinfeld and Weaver. I know everyone in the blogosphere is having kittens for that Weaver pick.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

4/5

Mike Leigh got in over the writers for Black Swan. Again: does this mean the film gets a release here? Please?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

5/5

Count it!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan - Matthew Libatique
Inception - Wally Pfister
The King's Speech - Danny Cohen
The Social Network - Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit - Roger Deakins

 4/5

The King's Speech triumphed over 127 Hours' double dose of DPs. Another strong group.

BEST SCORE
127 Hours - A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon - John Powell
Inception - Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech - Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network - Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
4/5
Alas, Never Let Me Go is left out in the cold this year. 127 Hours got in, though I for one really liked that score, too. I will never get over Powell's How to Train Your Dragon score getting a nom, though, because that movie is AMAZING.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
127 Hours - If I Rise
Country Strong - Coming Home
Tangled - I See the Light
Toy Story 3 - We Belong Together

3/4, predicted 5

No Burlesque? You lose, Academy!

BEST EDITING
127 Hours - Jon Harris
Black Swan - Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter - Pamela Martin
The King's Speech - Tariq Anwar
The Social Network - Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter

4/5

Wow. Ok, color me surprised that it's Inception, of all things, that is left off in favor of 127 Hours.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
I Am LoveThe King's Speech 
The Tempest
True Grit

3/5

No Black Swan? No Burlesque? WHO CARES I AM LOVE GOT A NOMINATION! WHOOOOO!!!!


BEST MAKEUP
Barney's VersionThe Way Back
The Wolfman 

1/3

Thank Oscar the abysmal Alice in Wonderland is left out in the cold on this one. Didn't see Barney's Version coming, though I just left off The Wolfman.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

3/5

Why did the abysmal Alice in Wonderland get in on this one?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Hereafter
Inception 
Iron Man 2

3/5

Clint Eastwood flicks have to end up somewhere, I guess. I'm disappointed not to see Scott Pilgrim or TRON: Legacy here. The latter is the most surprising, for me.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception 
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy 
True Grit 
Unstoppable

2/5

Ah, how could I have forgotten the mainstream blockbuster slot for Unstoppable (TRON: Legacy, I don't think, really applies to that)! How could I have missed the TRON film, though? I knew the sound was incredible, what was I thinking?


BEST SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network 
True Grit 

3/5

And again, Salt! How could I have forgotten? True Grit's really doing well in these tech categories, isn't it?

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
3/3

But of course.

Unpredicted nominees in Foreign Language, Shorts and Docs after the jump....

The Nominees Are (Maybe, Perhaps?)

I am so excited for Oscar noms tomorrow, you have no idea. Well, scratch that; since you're here, you are probably either (a) looking forward to them as much as I am, or (b) tired of reading about my own anticipation. Which is CRAZY. Reading about my anticipation is one of the highlights of life! (Or...wait...am I thinking of Niagara Falls?)

Some people may tell you about their "gut feelings" or "instincts". I wish I had either of those things, but these are pretty much wild guesses. Shots in the dark. Russian roulette.

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Town, True Grit, Winter's Bone 
What? No Toy Story 3? I actually just kind of forgot about it and decided this looked fine, though I knew something was missing, so I re-read the Entertainment Weekly predix. Ah. Well, I'm more comfortable cutting an animated film than either 127 Hours or Winter's Bone. Toy Story 3 is certainly deserving, but I don't think that a 10-wide field means all animated, all the time.

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

BEST ACTOR
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Really, how are they going to nominate The Fighter for everything but Lead Actor? Does that make sense?

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Sissy Spacek, Get Low

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit

BEST SCORE
How to Train Your Dragon - John Powell
Inception - Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech - Alexandre Desplat
Never Let Me Go - Rachel Portman
The Social Network - Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
This was the hardest one, actually. Three sure things, plus Powell and Portman because...because.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
127 Hours - If I Rise
Burlesque - You Haven't Seen the Last of Me
Tangled - I See the Light
Toy Story 3 - We Belong Together
Waiting for Superman - Shine a Light

BEST EDITING
Black Swan 
The Fighter 
Inception 
The King's Speech 
The Social Network

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan 
Burlesque
The King's Speech 
The Tempest

BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Way Back

BEST ART DIRECTION
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception 
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World 
TRON: Legacy

These are the choices Andrew had at his blog...and I found them to be wise choices indeed.

BEST SOUND EDITING
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception 
The Town 
True Grit 

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan 
Inception
The Social Network 
The Town 
True Grit 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Golden Globes in a Crystal Ball

Ah, the Globes! I know everyone likes to diss the Golden Globes as meaningless, as starfucking at its worst, as a fake awards show made up of dubious choices by an organization no one seems to know much about (Hollywood Foreign Press Agency...what do they do?). These claims are often warranted, I'll grant you, especially when Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist and Red are nominated for Best Musical/Comedy, in a year that gave us Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and Easy A, both of which made my Top Ten of the Whole Year (I don't segregate).

But who cares? The Globes are great fun, and to be honest, they march to the beat of their own drum more than people give them credit for. Remember when they awarded Atonement for Best Drama in 2007 over the Oscar favorite No Country for Old Men? It was the Globes awarding Avatar last year that cast doubt for The Hurt Locker's chances. They awarded The Aviator! They awarded The Hours! And as my friend Tom pointed out, they nominated four supporting actresses from the great Nashville. The Globes and I are friends.

Let me lay down some predictions for y'all, then.

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Well, when you're nominating movies like Alice in Wonderland and The Tourist against masterpieces like Burlesque and The Kids Are All Right, then throwing in brainless fun like Red for good measure, predicting who will reign victorious can be a trifle...hard. But I usually like the Globes' choices in this category (The Hangover, Vicky Cristina Barcelona), so I'm going to go with The Kids Are All Right.

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
Four of my Top Ten appear here, and five of my Top 25. Well-played, Globes. The Globes tend to go for love stories here, or for European films, or for both. The King's Speech -- with its central friendship, supportive wife, and Britishness -- should reign supreme here.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Annette Bening, please. The only Oscar contender in a category that includes Anne Hathaway, Emma Stone, Julianne Moore and Angelina Jolie. Oscars for Best Actor are only for Drama films. However, the Globes likes to give love to both Actress frontrunners -- remember Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard, Sally Hawkins and Kate Winslet (before Hawkins wasn't nominated at Oscar and The Reader took Revolutionary Road's spot)? So, yeah, Bening here...

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
...which means Natalie Portman wins here. And good for her! I feel like the HFPA were the only ones who saw Frankie and Alice, and have probably earned Halle Berry's eternal devotion. Michelle Williams might be a dark horse here, actually. I could see it happening, but I don't think it will. The other two -- Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence -- are the only nominees for their respective films, suggesting that the HFPA just doesn't love their movies enough. Shameful, but true. Rabbit Hole especially grows better and better in my mind with each passing day.
 
BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Previous winner Johnny Depp is up for two films here, neither of which present his best, or even second-best, work. Then we have Paul Giamatti, Jake Gyllenhaal and Kevin Spacey. Hm. Tough choice, really, since previous winners I either loved (Colin Farrell), liked a lot (Robert Downey, Jr.), or admired enough (Johnny Depp). Here, we have performance I hate, performance I was bored by, and three performances I haven't seen. Let me just take a shot in the dark and say Paul Giamatti.


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

As strong as the performances turned in by Jesse Eisenberg, Ryan Gosling, James Franco and Robert Duvall are, Colin Firth is in it to win it.

BEST DIRECTOR
Oh, David Fincher, obviously. Look, they may love The King's Speech in all other things, but you should probably give the Best Director award to the best director of the year. Even the Globes know that (thus Cameron won). Now, it's admittedly a tough choice since they nominated all the Best Directors -- Fincher, Aronofsky, Russell -- but I have faith in Fincher.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Up in the Air...Slumdog Millionaire...No Country for Old Men...Brokeback Mountain. With the exception of The Queen, the Globe has been awarded to the Oscar frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay. Since I've been watching it, I mean. Inception keeps getting nods in this category, but I've no faith in its chances. 127 Hours, ditto. The Kids Are All Right would be a good win, actually, but the other two nominees are who it's really between. The Social Network? The King's Speech? Despite my feeling that they'll really go for The King's Speech, I think Aaron Sorkin's The Social Network wins here. It's the law of the adaptation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is another category where I believe The King's Speech will topple the presumed frontrunner. I think Bale is a shoo-in for the SAG and Oscar, but Geoffrey Rush's  understated performance as Lionel Logue pulls the heartstrings and tickles the funnybone. Douglas, Garfield and Renner are just glad to be here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Everyone would love to see Jacki Weaver take it, I know, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Mila Kunis is that odd nominee that will show up everywhere but not actually win anything. It's between the two girls from The Fighter and The King's Speech's Helena Bonham-Carter. Though they'll love The King's Speech and Bonham-Carter, her role is not enough to warrant an award. It's between Adams and Leo, either of whom could win...but I'm going with frontrunner and Critics' Choice Award Winner Melissa Leo.

The rest are just guesses and no-brainers. Determine amongst yourselves which are which.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Biutiful
BEST COMEDY SERIES: "Glee"
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES: Toni Collette, "The United States of Tara"
BEST DRAMA SERIES: "Boardwalk Empire"
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
BEST MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: "Carlos"
BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: Claire Danes, "Temple Grandin"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ON TV: Chris Colfer, "Glee"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ON TV: Jane Lynch, "Glee"

Here We Go Again...

The Producers and Writers Guilds announced their nominees for the Best/Most Outstanding/Most Well-Publicized [Blankety Blank] of the Year. The former stayed the course, though there was one entry that made me go, "Hm." Not shocked, mind you, and very pleased to see it, but I was expecting something else.

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

The Town

Toy Story 3

True Grit

I guess I have to buckle down and face facts: True Grit is a true blue contender. Not that I hated the movie, I'm just surprised. I really didn't think it was going to go anywhere besides screenplay and cinematography, and yet here we are, one PGA and two SAG noms later.

Now, the surprise for me was seeing 127 Hours instead of Winter's Bone. I thought the first would be more vulnerable, but I guess not. Now, is this slate going to repeat itself at the Oscars? Probably, actually. That's fine by me: 127 Hours made it to my Top 25, after all. I'd rather see Winter's Bone in there than The Town, though.

Ok, now the WGA always manages to toss in a surprise or two, especially considering how films like The King's Speech and Winter's Bone were deemed ineligible due to Guild membership requirements and whatnot.

Original

Black Swan - Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin, story by Heinz

The Fighter - Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, story by Keith Dorrington & Tamasy & Johnson

Inception - Christopher Nolan

The Kids Are All Right - Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg

Please Give - Nicole Holofcener

Adapted

127 Hours - Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, from Between a Rock and a Hard Place by Aron Ralston

I Love You Phillip Morris - John Requa & Glenn Ficarra, from the book by Steven McVicker

The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin, from The Accidental Billionaires by Ben Mezrich

The Town - Peter Craig and Ben Affleck & Aaron Stoddard, from Prince of Thieves by Chuck Hogan

True Grit - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, from the novel by Charles Portis

I mean, those inclusions for Please Give and I Love You Phillip Morris are quite the how-do, don't you think? Actually, the latter has thrown off my game, making it the only nominee here that I haven't seen. Which means that I've got to find a way to get to Boca if I want to keep things consistent. I believe there's a separate animation branch, too, which explains the absence of Toy Story 3 from the adapted list; it worries me not.

I just want to point out this: this is the second career nomination for Ben Affleck by the WGA, and he's about to get a second person an acting Oscar nom. Maybe Affleck was the brains behind Good Will Hunting after all? Because according to every spoof show I watch, there's no way Affleck and Damon could be equally talented!

Semi-Finalists: Fifteen Beauties of 2010

I still stand by my calling 2010 the most mediocre and disappointing film year I've experienced, but I've always been known among friends and family as "liking every movie". While that's not true at all (clearly), I have a lot of love in my heart for all kinds of cinema, and I think my Top 25 reflects that. What's so significant about this year is, more than ever, the "Oscar" films were truly incredible, so much so that I've spent three days trying to decide what to put here and what to put on the Top Ten. Five different films have filled in that Number Eleven spot, and we could very well wind up with a Precious situation.

(Last year, Precious made it to Number 22 of my Top 25; a second viewing a couple weeks before the Oscars had me rooting for it to sweep. Since then, it's joined my private pantheon of Greatest Movies of All Time.)

I regret not having room for Letters to Juliet, Shutter Island or Rabbit Hole, but this list reflects my feelings as of this last week. In the years, months, weeks to come, it may completely change, but for now, it's an interesting time capsule. Without further ado, 25-11 of my Top 25 of the Year.

25. The American

A beautiful, meditative, quiet film. George Clooney always finds a new way to break my heart, but this movie's finale may be his most effective. Good on Anton Corbijn, who made his feature debut with the equally moving Control in 2007, for evoking a long dormant form of filmmaking.

24. 127 Hours

Cathartic and claustrophobic, devastating and uplifting. A.R. Rahman's score impressed me, but of course it was James Franco who really delivered, anchoring the film with his transformation from smug to survival.

23. The Last Exorcism

Those final images still haunt me. See it for the career-making (in a perfect world) performances by Patrick Fabian and Ashley Bell. See it for the eerie storytelling. See it for scares not induced by sudden shocks or an intrusive score. A welcome addition to the horror genre, and to my favorite sub-genre.

22. Toy Story 3

(Number Twenty-Four on 25 Most Anticipated)

Ok, so they tease you with ruminations of mortality before a deus ex machina. But it's still an impressively mature study of maturation, letting go, moving on, giving to the next generation. If that doesn't sell you on it, maybe a little Michael Keaton as Ken will.

21. Inception

(Number Fourteen on 25 Most Anticipated)

Breathtaking action sequences, certainly. Maybe few characters are fleshed-out in the script, but I rarely noticed during the runtime. Ellen Page is underrated, Tom Hardy steals most of the show, Marion Cotillard gets the most developed female role in Nolan's canon and nails it. It helps that she has a striking, haunting beauty, of course. Hans Zimmer's score was a high point of a the year.

20. How to Train Your Dragon

It just moved me in unexpected ways. Certainly, the boy and his dragon story is magical, but I see this as a film about the relationship between father and son. First and foremost. The dragon is really a MacGuffin.

19. The Karate Kid

No, no I did not expect to love this as much as I do (I know Andrew K is befuddled). What can I say, though? Jaden Smith has a promising career ahead of him. Jackie Chan won me back. James Horner still delivers like the old-school epic composers. Oooh, that finale at the tournament was suspenseful, too!

18. Burlesque

(Number One on 25 Most Anticipated)

Guilty pleasure alert! Am I saying that Burlesque is a better movie than Inception and Toy Story 3? Well...as strange as it sounds, I think Burlesque boasts some of the better-developed, most three-dimensional characters of the year. The dialogue may not clue you in to it, but any movie that recognizes that people aren't evil because they have different interests is all right by me. Cher and Tucci: that's a combo that bears repeating.

17. The Ghost Writer

(Number Twenty-Two on 25 Most Anticipated)

Pulp without irony! Refreshing! The cast wisely plays it straight, especially the strong turn by Pierce Brosnan, but writer-director Polanski, writer Robert Harris and composer Alexandre Desplat all clue you in. Of course it's over the top; it's a paperback thriller that refuses to apologize for being so awesome.

16. Piranha 3D

Great fun! Takes advantage of the 3D trend while spoofing it. Christopher Lloyd, a nude underwater ballet, and gore galore.

15. Winter's Bone

It's a casual thriller, in that the tale is suspenseful, but delivered in a non-sensational, this-is-how-it-is fashion. Jennifer Lawrence's engaging lead performance is already doing wonders for her. John Hawkes and Dale Dickey do not disappoint as her protector and antagonist, respectively, though Dickey especially is unforgettable, layering her character with surprising sympathy. Oh, yes, and the score and the cinematography and Debra Granik is a great director.

14. The Kids Are All Right

Lisa Cholodenko's study of a modern American family. There may be two moms, but they go through all the same trials and tribulations as any normal family. We've all been reading about The Bening's performance, and deservedly so, but the ensemble as a whole enchants: Ruffalo, Wasikowska, Hutcherson and especially Moore. Funny and relatable.

13. The Runaways

(Number Fifteen on 25 Most Anticipated)

Flawed, yes, but there is beauty in its imperfection. It's a dirty little punk boasting an arty sensibility and a stunning visual palette courtesy cinematographer Benoit Debie. The absence of Michael Shannon's name in this year's awards conversation is a travesty: is there a more magnetic and intimidating performance this year?

12. Blue Valentine

Love turns to resentment in this tragic yet strong debut from Derek Cianfrance, who worked with Williams and Gosling for years before filming began. The dedication shows. It hurts to watch, but I don't regret a moment of it. Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams are painfully real in their portrait of both an enthusiastic courtship and a crumbling marriage. Painfully. There are some sexy moments that play real (did he really...?), some bitter moments that ring too true. It's a downer emotionally, but as far as what it means for cinema, I couldn't be happier.

11. Get Low

I'm a huge fan of Robert Duvall, and if I ruled the world, he would have won his first two Oscars (Melvyn Douglas? Really?). Here, he gives what I consider his crowning achievement, career-best work that climaxes in an emotional final monologue. It's a slow burn, a comfortable mystery and character piece. Sissy Spacek broke my heart; Bill Murray gives more layers than you realize. Just perfectly-executed.

Tomorrow, my full Top Ten of '10, in alphabetical order. Because if it was ranked, there's no suspense at the Hollmann Awards.

Actors Loving Actors

And the SAG film nominees are....

Films still to come, but Hot in Cleveland was nominated for Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series and Best Actress in a Comedy Series, Betty White. I love that show! Can't wait for it to come back in January!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone [!!!!]
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
4/5, Hawkes in place of Murray. I'm so psyched he got nominated! Awesome!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3/5, Kunis and Steinfeld. None of these have come out here yet, but I like most of them as a rule. Steinfeld and I are still strangers.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
4/5, Bridges getting in for True Grit. Which I still can't believe, sight unseen. In my mind, True Grit won't be doing all that well with Oscar. Is this a blind spot?

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction
4/5, Swank sneaks in there. Good on Sasha Stone for that prediction. But siiiigh, Julianne....

BEST ENSEMBLE
Black Swan: Vincent Cassel, Barbara Hershey, Mila Kunis, Natalie Portman, Winona Ryder
The Fighter: Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, Jack McGee, Mark Wahlberg
The Kids Are All Right: Annette Bening, Josh Hutcherson, Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo, Mia Wasikowska
The King's Speech: Anthony Andrews, Helena Bonham-Carter, Jennifer Ehle, Colin Firth, Michael Gambon, Derek Jacobi, Guy Pearce, Geoffrey Rush, Timothy Spall
The Social Network: Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield, Armie Hammer, Max Minghella, Josh Pence, Justin Timberlake (how does Rooney Mara get a Supporting Actress campaign but not an Ensemble nod?)
4/5, Black Swan instead of The Town. I guess that makes sense, with two nominations.

SAGs to Come....

Fifteen minutes until the SAG Nominations come out. Some last-minute predictions.

ENSEMBLE
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town

ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

ACTOR
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Bill Murray, Get Low
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Reflections, Predictions, Dale Dickey

How remiss of me to wait this long before discussing the Independent Spirit Awards! Allow me to give a few opinions, as well as some (misguided) predictions for tomorrow's National Board of Review announcement.

Congratulations, first off, to Adele Romanski, nominated for the Piaget Producers Award for The Myth of the American Sleepover. You may recall my being bowled over by the film, so any support that it gets is tops. IFC picked it up for distribution, so you may get to catch it sometimes next year; I highly suggest you do.

The Please Give ensemble and casting director Jeanne McCarthy received the Robert Altman Award. A fair award, I guess. The movie's fine, and everyone works great together. I didn't fall in love with it, but there's no denying the talent involved. The play between Ann Guilbert, Rebecca Hall and Amanda Peet was awfully great, really, and Sarah Steele was just disarmingly solid.

The Actress category boasts six nominees, the only category to not have five. What's more, I've actually seen four of them! Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) and Natalie Portman (Black Swan) will probably repeat these noms throughout the season, as will Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right) and Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone). That'd be kind of thrilling; how often do the Spirits and the Oscars match up like that? It's nice to see Greta Gerwig getting recognition for Greenberg, but the real shocker is not that Michelle Williams was nominated for Blue Valentine...it's that she's the sole representation of that film! If the Indie crowd can't get behind a masterful, beautifully-wrought film like Blue Valentine, who will?

Nominations that made me go whee: Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone) and Ashley Bell (The Last Exorcism) for Best Supporting Female; John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Bill Murray (Get Low) and Samuel L. Jackson (for Mother and Child, which I haven't seen, but I adore him) for Best Supporting Male; Adam Kimmel (Never Let Me Go) for Best Cinematography; Winter's Bone leads in nominations with seven, including Feature and Director (Debra Granik). The noms for Dickey and Murray especially sent me something fierce, as I'm a huge fan of both their performances. Full run-down of nominees can be found here.

Now, then, to deal with the National Board of Review! For the past couple of years, they've been content to honor a top ten in addition to their Best Picture, making a kind of Top Eleven. That's one reason why I like them. The other is that they truly march to the beat of their own drum. Who else but the NBR would name Clint Eastwood Best Actor for Gran Torino, or honor The Painted Veil for Adapted Screenplay, or put The Bucket List on a Top Ten list?

Still, it's fun to try and predict things, even if you know you're going to be wildly off the mark. But no guts, no glory, as Sasha Stone likes to say.

TOP TEN
127 Hours
The Ghost Writer
Hereafter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Secretariat
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Winter's Bone

PICTURE: The Fighter
DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Scott Silver/Paul Tamasy/Eric Johnson/Keith Dorrington, The Fighter
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Robert Harris/Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer
ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
ENSEMBLE: The Kids Are All Right
DOCUMENTARY: Waiting for "Superman"
FOREIGN FILM: Biutiful
BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
BREAKTHROUGH ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Current State of Mind...

Finally updated the Top Ten in the sidebar, to reflect my mind of now. In what order are these? Alphabetical, and no more than that.

Blue Valentine
Easy A
Get Low
The Kids Are All Right
Mother
Piranha 3D
The Runaways
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
The Social Network
Winter's Bone

By the way, the last time I updated that sidebar was May, and the last time I did one of these posts was July.

More Than Just "All Right"

I moved into a new apartment Friday, one where the internet won't be hooked up until August 22nd. Fortunately, I just arrived in my old hometown for a two week vacation, and my folks have their wireless up and running. Four days without internet almost killed me, I swear, and not just because I'm an addict who spends most of his time on this thing. No, I needed to get on my blog and talk about two great movies I saw this weekend.

First, I want to talk briefly about the more readily available one. Though in a limited release, The Kids Are All Right has the benefit of Recognizable Stars to up its chances of getting an audience. And thank goodness for that, because this movie deserves to be seen. The movie is light, but the performances are fully realized. It's strange, because this movie does bring out the ol' Hollywood tropes: big speeches, college looming, bad best friends, outsider charms way into a family. And a cynical person may be tempted to say that no one would praise this movie as much if it was about a straight couple who used a donor as opposed to being what some are calling a "lesbian issue film".

 Relevant cinema! The horror!

But what's wrong with gays having mainstream issue films? Everyone else gets them. And if they're as good as The Kids Are All Right, can we have more, please?  This movie deals with families and marriage and growing up and the trust between spouses and the bonds between parent and child. These are universal themes that any family can appreciate and relate to. The parents here just happen to be women. And thank goodness for that, I say, for otherwise we'd be deprived some stellar work from Julianne Moore and Annette Bening.

That's what this movie is about, people. There's great direction from Lisa Cholodenko, and an admirable script by her and Stuart Blumberg. But this film is about the performances! Subtle, likable performances across the board! Annette has a great moment in Act Three that...well, it's really the basis of her inevitable Oscar campaign, isn't it? Julianne Moore charts this heartbreaking and relatable arc that kills me. Mia Wasikowska finally emotes and Josh Hutcherson makes me sorry he's not going to be Peter Parker. Mark Ruffalo? Best performance he's given since Zodiac. A solid ensemble all around, and best of all: it comes with a believable family dynamic! Hurrah!

Yeah, I highly recommend it, and I stick to my earlier predictions for Best Actress and Best Picture nominations. The film's that good.

And as for that other film I saw...well, that deserves a separate post!

Pointless Predictions!

Once again, I've entered Nathaniel's Best Actress Psychic contest over at The Film Experience. Yes, yes, it's April. It's too soon. But it's always fun to see how our spit-balling looks in nine months. My picks for Best Actress:


THE PREVIOUS NOMINEE; THE "LIGHT" ONE
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

THE PREVIOUS WINNER; THE PULITZER PLAY
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

THE NEW GIRL
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

 THE OVERDUE ACTRESS
Robin Wright Penn, The Conspirator

THE PREVIOUS WINNER; THE NEMESIS OF ANNETTE
Hilary Swank, Betty Anne Waters










As of now, I give the edge to either Wright Penn or Bening. But, really, this is all just spitting around, pissing in the wind, cliche that doesn't fit the circumstances.

And just for fun, some other categories to consider:

BEST PICTURE
Fair Game, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, London Boulevard, Never Let Me Go, Rabbit Hole, The Tree of Life, The Way Back

BEST DIRECTOR
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (Oscar Nom for The Thin Red Line)
John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Peter Weir, The Way Back (Oscar Noms for Witness, Dead Poets Society, The Truman Show and Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter (Oscar Noms for Junebug and Doubt)
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech (Oscar Nom for The Wings of the Dove)
Elle Fanning, Somewhere
Melissa Leo, The Fighter (Oscar Nom for Frozen River)
Kerry Washington, Mother and Child

BEST ACTOR
Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Oscar Win for Wall Street)
Colin Farrell, London Boulevard
Colin Firth, The King's Speech (Oscar Nom for A Single Man)
Sean Penn, Fair Game (Oscar Wins for Mystic River and Milk)
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (Oscar Nom for The Departed)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Ed Harris, The Way Back (Oscar Noms for The Truman Show, Pollock and The Hours)
Sam Rockwell, Betty Anne Waters
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (Oscar Win for Shine)
Mark Strong, The Way Back