The 30th Golden Globes

Ah, the Golden Globes! Awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association since 1944, they're a guaranteed mix of future Oscar nominees, bizarre curiosities, and genuinely good movies. As it is now, so it was in 1972 when, alongside eventual Academy Award nominees, these were the honored films:

SAG Award Nominations

The film nominees for the Screen Actors Guild Awards, as announced this morning by the very giddy duo of Olivia Munn and Niecy Nash.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

My predictions: 3/5 - Octavia Spencer missed out, which surprises me; so did Julia Roberts, but I knew that was a risky prediction. Four of these ladies also showed up on the Golden Globes' lineup; the real winner, in spirit, is Holly Hunter.

More surprises, after the jump.

Predictably SAGgy

The nominations for the Screen Actirs Guild Awards will be announced tomorrow. How about some predictions?

Best Ensemble

Lady Bird

Mudbound

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Not having seen The Post, I can only say that it's a hell of a cast they've assembled. My other four picks are all films where you really feel the community of characters on-screen - not just the headliners who will get their names on the official nominee roster, but the bit characters, too. The brother's girlfriend in Lady Bird, the neighbor losing her mind in Mudbound, the meek security man in The Shape of Water, the black chief in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri: they are all indelible to their films and stories, all brought to vivid life by their actors. That's what makes for an Outstanding Cast.

The remainder, after the jump

Further Thoughts On The Golden Globes

Scattered, more detailed thoughts on those Golden Globe nominations, and what they mean for Awards Season overall...

1) A lot of people are stunned and angry about Jordan Peele's absence from the Best Director lineup at the Golden Globes. I will be shocked if he actually winds up nominated at the DGAs or the Oscars. That's nothing to do with the quality of his work; there's a reason why it's sustained its level of hype from February, and not just because it captures The Moment in terms of our current conversations regarding race and whiteness - it's because of the craftsmanship, the originality. Still, while Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay nominations are all but guaranteed, Peele's working in a genre seldom given due at the Oscars. Besides, it's a crowded field in general: Guillermo del Toro, Steven Spielberg, Luca Guadagnino, Sean Baker, Martin McDonagh, Paul Thomas Anderson, Greta Gerwig, Ridley Scott, Dee Rees. Peele's a more likely nominee than a good chunk of this group, but with no consensus yet on even the top three frontrunners, he's got hurdles.

Talking 'bout Wonder Woman, Three Billboards, and more, after the jump....

Why Will Smith May Benefit from the Jane Fonda Rule

I am giving my full Oscar predictions tomorrow, but I want to talk about Best Actor right now. Actually, I want to tell you why I'll be predicting Will Smith for Concussion to be among the nominees.

I call it The Jane Fonda Rule.

Jane Fonda, in case you didn't know, is a two-time Oscar winning actress, Academy Member, blogger, and Tweeter. And it's as a blogger and a Tweeter that she has stumped for certain films and performances over the past couple of years.

CHECK IT OUT AFTER THE JUMP.

SAG Award Wackiness!

Everybody's calling this morning nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards weird. I'm one of them. But let's be clear -- what we really mean is that few of the pre-ordained "front-runners" were included. The nominating committee, the members of which change every year, voted with their hearts, and it took everyone by surprise. For me, the system worked -- even if there are nominations that drive me absolutely crazy.

I'll get to the movies in a bit, but re: television: no Grace and Frankie and no Empire make me very skeptical of this year's committee. That's all I'm gonna say.

Ok. So.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I told y'all Mirren was in. Told. Y'all. In fact, I successfully called four of the nominees, missing out on McAdams. Indeed, McAdams placement gave me hope for the rest of her cast, which made the next set of nominees a shocker.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Not a Spotlight to be found, and the nods for Bale and Shannon left me shocked SHOCKED.

ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Here's the thing. Kristopher Tapley pointed out that, except for The Revenant, all these films screened for SAG before November. And Leo doesn't always get nominated at the SAG Awards. So the fact that they went out of their way to nominate him tells me this really could be his year, though part of me is still holding out for a Fassbender surprise.

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Sarah Silverman! Good for you, girl! Work that nod into something more! But everyone needs to calm down with the Mirren love. I gave you The Last Station. I put up with Hitchcock. I predicted Trumbo because why not? But I will not stand for Woman in Gold.

ENSEMBLE
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Ooh, they loved Trumbo, didn't they? I was surprised with how much I liked it, though it isn't a movie I think about often. Very very very happy about Spotlight and Straight Outta Compton. But boy does this lineup remind me of 2007 -- remember that? No Country for Old Men won against 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Hairspray and Into the Wild.

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The Awards So Far

Derelict in my duties, I have been! I haven't talked about the National Board of Review, the New York Critics, or the Los Angeles Critics. I don't remember if I have before, but I definitely keep charts of all three.

Here's what happened:

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW: Mad Max: Fury Road won Best Picture; The Martian won Best Actor (Matt Damon), Best Director (Ridley Scott), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Drew Goddard). This immediately reminded me of my trip to South Korea, mostly because that's where I saw Mad Max, but also because the friend I was visiting at the time wound up loving The Martian so much, he saw it thrice (at least) in theaters. So that was interesting. Meanwhile, Brie Larson (Room), Sylvester Stallone (Creed), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) round out the actors; Quentin Tarantino wins Original Screenplay for The Hateful Eight.

NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE: Carol, which I plan to see a second time this week, dominated with four wins, including Film, Director (Todd Haynes), Screenplay (Phyllis Nagy), and Cinematography (Edward Lachman). The big shocker: Michael Keaton winning Actor for Spotlight, an ensemble film full of supporting actors/actresses. Supporting Actor, instead, went to Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies (deserved); Supporting Actress to Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria (the only movie I saw during my one week in New York City, which I visited for the first time a week before South Korea); Actress to Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, a dream of a film, a phenomenal performance.

LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION: Spotlight may be the best movie of the year -- certainly LAFCA thought so, since, in addition to Screenplay, that's what it won. Then the rest of the categories spread the love: Mad Max: Fury Road's George Miller for Best Director, Steve Jobs' Michael Fassbender for Best Actor, 45 Years' Charlotte Rampling for Best Actress, 99 Homes' Michael Shannon for Best Supporting Actor; Ex Machina's leading lady Alicia Vikander for Best Supporting Actress.

Joe Reid pointed out on Twitter that this is the first time since 1988 all three critics' bodies split in every category. By the way, Oscar awarded Rain Man for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Original Screenplay that year -- total mentions by any of these groups: 0.

In the morning, another group will announce their nominees -- the Screen Actors Guild. My predictions, after the jump.

A Crystal Ball for the Golden Globes

My goodness, the Golden Globes are announcing their nominees tomorrow, too?! Awards Season will be the death of me...in due time.

There's no telling which way the Globes will go -- mostly because I'm never sure what genre certain movies are pushed for -- these are the same people who felt Iron Man should compete in Drama instead of Comedy, after all. They're all crazy.

Nevertheless -- let's try it. Let's try predicting the Globes.

THE DRAMA CATEGORIES

Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
 (the actors, comedy/musical, and more after the jump)

The Actors Speak: SAG Award Nominees

And the Screen Actors Guild Awards film nominees for the year 2014 are:

For Best Stunt Ensemble:
FURY
GET ON UP (say what now? a sign of popularity?)
THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES
UNBROKEN
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

For Best Supporting Actor:
ROBERT DUVALL, THE JUDGE
ETHAN HAWKE, BOYHOOD
EDWARD NORTON, BIRDMAN
MARK RUFFALO, FOXCATCHER
J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH

For Best Supporting Actress:
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, THE IMITATION GAME
EMMA STONE, BIRDMAN
MERYL STREEP, INTO THE WOODS
NAOMI WATTS, ST. VINCENT (whoa whaaaaat)

For Best Actor:
STEVE CARELL, FOXCATCHER
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH, THE IMITATION GAME
JAKE GYLLENHAAL, NIGHTCRAWLER (yes, amazing!)
MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN
EDDIE REDMAYNE, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

For Best Actress:
JENNIFER ANISTON, CAKE (well!)
FELICITY JONES, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE
ROSAMUND PIKE, GONE GIRL
REESE WITHERSPOON, WILD

For Best Ensemble:
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (yay!)
THE IMITATION GAME
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (nnngggh)

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I Predict....2014 SAG Awards Edition

In just a little over twelve hours, the Screen Actor Guild will announce their nominees for the 2014 film season. So what's going to make? Let this spirit show you visions of what might be....

For Best Ensemble, I predict....
BIRDMAN (because it's a large ensemble of all-stars physically sharing screen time together)
BOYHOOD (because what actor would resist an ensemble crafting characters over 12 years?)
THE IMITATION GAME (because the British are irresistible)
INTO THE WOODS (because boy do they love musicals -- see also Nine)
SELMA (because it's a large ensemble in a Historically Important film)

For Best Actor, I predict....
CHADWICK BOSEMAN, GET ON UP (twist!)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH, THE IMITATION GAME (frontrunner!)
MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN (also a frontrunner!)
DAVID OYELOWO, SELMA (purported dark-horse who's a frontrunner!)
EDDIE REDMAYNE, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (everyone's a frontrunner!)

For Best Actress, I predict....
FELICITY JONES, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE (frontrunner!)
ROSAMUND PIKE, GONE GIRL
HILARY SWANK, THE HOMESMAN (well, Conviction and so forth...)
REESE WITHERSPOON, WILD

For Best Supporting Actor, I predict....
ROBERT DUVALL, THE JUDGE (well, Get Low and so forth...)
ETHAN HAWKE, BOYHOOD
EDWARD NORTON, BIRDMAN
MARK RUFFALO, FOXCATCHER
J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH (frontrunner!)

For Best Supporting Actress, I predict....
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD (frontrunner!)
JESSICA CHASTAIN, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR
LAURA DERN, WILD
ANNA KENDRICK, INTO THE WOODS
MERYL STREEP, INTO THE WOODS

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The 2013 Oscar Nominees!

Like Benedict Cumberbatch in August: Osage County, I am broken up over missing the Oscar nominees. It's the first time I've missed the announcement since 2006, so it's a terrible, terrible feeling to have. But then I remember, "Molly, you in Sundance, girl." Ah, yes. That's fine, then. It's okay.

The nominees are....

Lucky Guess?: Oscar Predix, 2013

I didn't mean to predict every Oscar category, but boy, once I got going, I just could not stop!

Hopefully I'll be able to watch the actual announcement Thursday morning, but if I don't, it'll be because I'm busy setting up BiteSize TV for success at the Sundance Film Festival. Yes, we will be streaming live content from Park City, Utah, and it is going to be a damn good time! So, worthy reason to miss out on the noms. Though I probably won't -- it's news, after all.

Anyway, my predictions are....after the jump, of course. Take a look.

Crystal Ball for the Globes

The Golden Globes air tomorrow night, and while I did not post about the nominees, I may as well speculate on who I think will win. It's always a fun, loose event, enjoyable to watch - and that was before they got Tina Fey and Amy Poehler to host. Twice.

So! Predictions! If I haven't followed a category with "should win", it means the win I predict is also the one I want. And, of course, movies only, since I know next to nothing about what goes on in the TV world...

DRAMA 
PICTURE: Gravity
should win: 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) or Robert Redford (All is Lost)
ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

COMEDY/MUSICAL 
PICTURE: American Hustle
ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
should win: Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) or Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
ACTRESS: Amy Adams, American Hustle

IN GENERAL 
DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
should win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
SCREENPLAY: Eric Warren Singer/David O. Russell, American Hustle
should win: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
should win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
should win: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
SCORE: Steven Price, Gravity
should win: Alexander Ebert, All is Lost
SONG: "Let It Go", Frozen
ANIMATED: Frozen
FOREIGN FILM: Blue is the Warmest Color

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Tony Predictions; Or, Gettin' My Fix

Land sakes, here the Tony Award Nominations are barely six hours away and I haven't even posted my predictions!

Award Season Ketchup

In the great rush of nominations for the Oscars and Hollmann Awards, as well as some personal things of my own, I wound up missing one or three of the remaining Guilds/Precursors/Others, including the Golden Globe ceremony. I know, I know: in this day and age, two minutes past may as well be ten years late, much less the week I've allowed. How do I stay relevant?
And so come posts like these, where I attempt to play catch-up on everything I missed reporting on: Globe wins, BAFTA noms, Guild honors.

First, Globe wins...

Another Guilds Group, Another Show...

Yet another guild has announced, and it's a favorite of mine: THE WRITERS GUILD! The Writers Guild is fun because every year they have a list of potential Oscar frontrunners that are deemed ineligible for their own prize, mostly something to do with registration or lack of guild membership or yada-yada-yada. For instance, Quentin Tarantino, one of the most distinct voices in screenwriting ever, has never been up for a WGA award because he refuses to join the guilds. That's a heads up, by the way: you won't find Django Unchained here, but don't expect that to impact its Oscar chances.
Because of this rule, though, we get to see work that otherwise wouldn't be so honored up for a nomination! And while no one wants to get in due to a technicality (ex.: no one wants to be crowned Mt. Rose American Teen Princess because of an exploding swan), they get to put "award-nominated screenwriter" on their resume. You know that's gotta feel good.

Producers to the Left, Art Directors to the Right

The Producers' Guild surprised everyone by announcing their nominees a day (or two?) early. Here are their nominees:

Globes Giveth (Kidman), Globes Taketh (Knightley)

SONG

For You - Act of Valor

Safe and Sound - The Hunger Games

Suddenly - Les Miserables

Skyfall - Skyfall

Not Running Anymore - Stand Up Guys

Stand Up Guys? The Taylor Swift song from Hunger Games? Act of Valor? Guys, the only proper response to the HFPA is limitless adoration.

SCORE

Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli

Argo - Alexandre Desplat

Cloud Atlas - Johnny Klimek/Reinhold Heil/Tom Tykwer

Life of Pi - Mychael Danna

Lincoln - John Williams

Finally, some love for Cloud Atlas! All very strong contenders; expect win for Karenina, Atlas or Pi. 

SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Tony Kushner, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Chris Terrio, Argo

Your usual suspects, with two counting as original (Zero, Django), and three as adapted. Still think Silver Linings Playbook is weak in the script department, but I better get used to this.

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL/COMEDY

Jack Black, Bernie

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Surprised that Hyde Park on Hudson can be considered a movie; especially depressing considering that Tommy Lee Jones' performance in Hope Springs goes unrecognized. Abandoned by SAG, the BFCA, and now the HFPA. Woe to the man who does not campaign for the pre-September release.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Arkin, Hoffman and Jones are definite locks at this point, but Globes switch it up a bit by nominating both DiCaprio and Waltz for Django. I'm surprised they didn't go for De Niro in Silver Linings, but they do love their Tarantino actors.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Emmanuelle Riva looking more and more like the outsider looking in...unless she winds up as the surprise nominee come January 10. Keira Knightley's incredible performance in Anna Karenina is officially KIA. If she can't get support from the Globes, there's no hope left. Glad for Cotillard, though. And how about that Rachel Weisz!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

NICOLE KIDMAN. Oh my God, this is actually happening!

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Yeah, I had a feeling Salmon Fishing would be their cup of tea, showing up both here and in Actor. Dench, Lawrence and Streep were givens, but I see they made up to Smith for not nominating her in Supporting Actress. She actually is delightful in Quartet, but Hoffman (or his editor or someone) chose to cut away from a lot of her beats, undercutting some of her performance. 

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

It's official -- the HFPA likes The Master more than SAG.

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Well, of course the best-directed films must be the dramas! Held out hope for a nod for Wes Anderson, but screenplay was already crowded and he was a longshot for director. No nod for Tom Hooper, either, which is a surprise considering Les Miserables was the supposed front-runner a week ago.

I'm grateful for Dench, Cotillard, Team Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom and Nicole Kidman. I'm burning a candle for Anna Karenina and Cloud Atlas, two masterpieces that are more than their scores (not to look that gift horse in the mouth, though: deserved noms, both).

Actors Nomming Actors: SAG

The Screen Actors Guild nominees arrived this morning at (roughly) 5:55AM, PST. I had an alarm set and everything, almost falling back asleep with the thought, "Eh, it's just the Globes, I'll read everyone's take later." Which is wrong in many ways. What kind of monster would choose to sleep during the Globe nominees? Had I already forgotten last year, when announcer Woody Harrelson objected to Rampart's complete absence, and when Sofia Vergara Charo'd out with her pronunciation of Scorsese's name (Ma-reen Scor-sez)?

Not that that matters, because that's tomorrow. What matters is this: SCREEN ACTORS GUILD nominees!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

SURPRISE!: Bardem gets in for his Bond villain, the first time the franchise has been honored by any of the major guilds (WGA, DGA, PGA, SAG).

HOORAY: Bardem obviously, but even though they're pretty much locks, I'm always rooting for Hoffman and Jones in their respective films. I didn't care much for The Master, but I think Hoffman does a magnificent job of presenting the subtle manipulations and irrepressible charm of Lancaster Dodd, as well as the little weaknesses that weaken his own fortitude.

As for Jones in Lincoln: bad-ass. (You saw the Cinemaniacs review of Lincoln, right?)

MIA: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained); I blame the late arrival of the film, since Tarantino's flicks usually pick up some steam at these things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

SURPRISE!: Kidman gets in for her white trash sexed-up Barbie doll in Lee Daniels' dark, camp thriller The Paperboy.

HOORAY: SAG gave out pleasant surprises higgledy-piggledy this year: Kidman gave one of the strongest performances of the year (even if it isn't, in my mind, a supporting one). Also appreciate the continued love for Hunt's work in The Sessions, though hers is not a supporting performance either.

MIA: Ann Dowd (Compliance), Amy Adams (The Master), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Judi Dench (Skyfall)

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

SURPRISE!: None. For me, anyway. I know others were expecting Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, but I sure as hell wasn't.

HOORAY: No Phoenix!

MIA: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock), Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

SURPRISE!: This goes into MIA as well, but the absence of both Emmanuelle Riva and Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour surprised many today. I'm assuming that they weren't eligible, or at least unseen by the members of the nominating committee. Mirren and Watts making it in raised my eyebrows.

HOORAY: Cotillard, whose film I just saw last night, is superb.

MIA: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

BEST ENSEMBLE

Argo

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

SURPRISE!: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel!

HOORAY: Argo, Best Exotic, Lincoln and Silver Linings all boasted superlative casts with great chemistry; in some cases, they saved the movie (but you've seen the Cinemaniacs reviews of Silver Linings Playbook, right?). I haven't seen Les Mis, so only time will tell.

MIA: Strong ensemble work this year - Moonrise Kingdom, Magic Mike, Damsels in Distress, The Sessions, The Paperboy, and Cloud Atlas all deserved nods here, but I wouldn't know which of them to choose and which of these solid nominees to replace.

Winners' Circle

Oscar Season is hilarious. No matter how open a season seems at the beginning, no matter how many surprise nominations are thrown at us in the precursors, sooner or later everything falls into step. SAGs a few weeks ago, BAFTAs last night, plus DGA and PGA in between, confirmed this. You can talk about how Brad Pitt is due, Scorsese's a legend, Woody Allen's had his biggest hit in year, etc., etc., but sooner or later you gotta wake up and smell the inevitability. I gotta say though, when the inevitable is fun, gorgeous and moving....it's not the worst that could happen.

So, the awards run-down of the past couple of months.

GOLDEN GLOBES
Drama: The Descendants
Musical/Comedy: The Artist
Actor - Drama: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress - Drama: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Actor - Musical/Comedy: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Actress - Musical/Comedy: Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Song: "Masterpiece", W.E.

SAG
Ensemble: The Help
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

DGA
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

PGA
The Artist

BAFTA
Picture: The Artist
British Film: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Original Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Bridget O'Connor/Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Cinematography: Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Editing: Gregers Sall/Chris King, Senna
Production Design: Dante Ferretti/Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo
Costume Design: Mark Bridges, The Artist
Makeup: The Iron Lady
Sound: Hugo
Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT?

So The Artist is the frontrunner. Winning big at the Globes, Guilds and BAFTAs will do that for you. Of course, there's the inevitable backlash, people claiming it's the light, safe choice. Because, really, what's safer than a low-grossing, black-and-white French silent film? Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer are locks, WGA still needs to announce, and Jean Dujardin quickly bested "frontrunner" George Clooney and "due" Brad Pitt.

The only real race now is in Actress, and it's between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. It's always between [fill in the blank] and Meryl Streep, but this year saw a real knock-out performance from her, albeit in a film that's getting a mixed reception. Again. If we look at where Streep reigned, however, it's not too big a surprise: the Golden Globes have handed her numerous awards over the years, and The Iron Lady is (obviously) a much more BAFTA thing than The Help. Still, it's Streep's first BAFTA win since The French Lieutenant's Woman. This baby could go either way.


Oscar predictions to come, naturally.