Predicting The Oscars, 2020-21 Edition

Lean and mean predictions for who's winning Oscars tomorrow night. 

I believe this will be a true "spread the wealth" year, with each of the eight Best Picture nominees getting at least one Oscar.

Here we go:

LIVE ACTION SHORT: "The Letter Room"

ANIMATED SHORT: "If Anything Happens I Love You"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "A Love Song for Latasha"

DOCUMENTARY FILM: Time

ANIMATED FILM: Soul

INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round

SONG: "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

SCORE: Soul

VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

SOUND: Sound of Metal

EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Pinocchio

COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTRESS: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

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The 93rd Oscar Nominations: Surprises, Etc.

Forty-one feature films nominated this morning, led by Mank with ten. By my count, there were five big surprises this Oscar Nomination morn. In order of shock:

1) 

Lakeith Stanfield nominated in Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. A shocker for two reasons: first of all, he was not tipped in any previous awards ceremony before this; but more importantly, he wasn't even campaigned as Supporting by Warner Bros.! So as not to compete, Stanfield was pushed for Lead and Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting. Both made it in Supporting, which makes me wonder how close Kaluuya came to pulling a Kate Winslet in The Reader-style category switcheroo. It's worth mentioning: I predicted Stanfield's nomination here back in April.

2) 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom under-performs. Nominated by almost every guild, leading the conversation in Best Actor, and my second favorite movie of 2020, Ma Rainey managed only five nominations - Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling - getting shut out of Best Adapted Screenplay (madness) and Best Picture (lunacy). 

3) 

Da 5 Bloods gets a nomination! I had feared that it would be completely shut out (certainly its absence in Best Editing and Best Actor makes one wonder how voters define "Best"), but fortunately, this top-tier Spike Lee joint will not go down in history as a This Had Oscar Buzz entrant. Lee's longtime collaborator Terence Blanchard was nominated for Best Score.

4) 

Only eight nominees in Best Picture. Many of my friends were predicting as many as ten, I predicted nine. The aforementioned absence of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom broke my heart; the absence of One Night in Miami..., which for a time looked to be a big contender for Best Director as well, was also pretty surprising. Nothing shocking included.

5)

Another Round's Thomas Vinterberg nominated for Best Director over Aaron Sorkin. An alternate choice for many predictors (my Oscar trivia teammate recently made this very prediction on Facebook, you'll have to take my word for it). Still, I'm surprised that he unseated Sorkin instead of David Fincher or Emerald Fennell. 

The final roster of nominees after the jump:

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Like it says on the box - or, in this case, the headline - these are what I think may be announced Monday morning when Nick and Priyanka Chopra Jonas present the nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards. A lot of guesswork this year, especially when it comes to the acting and writing categories, but I'd rather a hard-to-predict year than a trudge towards the inevitable, ya know?

My predictions, after the jump... 

Mostly True...Mostly: 2020, Day Fifteen

Five more 2020 films, three of them inspired by true events!

Year Ahead: 2020 Oscar Predictions

In this time of self-isolation, I find comfort in continuing my routine where I can. Work is suspended, the library is closed, and going to the movies is completely out of the question - so I blog. I watch oldies at home, I make sandwiches, and I blog. On Sunday, I'm beginning a series on the films of 1956, but today, I'm looking at 2020, and films that could be up for next year's Oscars. I know the state of cinema is up in the air right now, but there is an international crisis about us, so why not escape for a moment, play the role of pundit, look into the crystal ball and see if we can foresee what titles will tale the stage of the Dolby Theater next winter?

I did take current events into account on a practical level, and so, with one exception, everything here is already listed as being in post-production. Too, I considered general tone: considering how dour this year's events have already been, expect a lot of Triumph of the Human Spirit.