A Year Ahead: 94th Oscars Predictions

The Oscar dust has settled, as far as I'm concerned. I only correctly guessed 14/22 of the winners, was a little disappointed by the Best Actress, pleasantly surprised by Best Actor, kicking myself for having changed my Cinematography prediction...water under the bridge now.

This means it's time to start thinking about next year's Oscars! Will next year's qualification period run from March 1, 2021-February 28, 2022, to keep with the weird timeline established out of panic? Or March 1, 2021-December 31 2021, a truncated version to get us back on track? Or will they go back to January 1, 2021-December 31, 2021, allowing January/February releases to qualify as long as they weren't nominated at the 93rd Oscars? Stranger things have happened, certainly. 

Still, Oscar does have its favorites. When I predicted this past Oscar ceremony a year ago, I foresaw the nominations for Minari in Best Picture, Anthony Hopkins in Best Actor, and LaKeith Stanfield in Best Supporting Actor, among other nods. Meanwhile, I went 0/5 in both Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, though the fact that six of the eight films I predicted across the two categories were pushed to late-2021/early-2022 absolves me of any guilt. 

Let's see what happens, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Annette

Belfast

Canterbury Glass

Cyrano

Dear Evan Hansen

Dune

The Harder They Fall

In the Heights

King Richard

Red, White, and Water

I don't know, I'm taking a swing - four musicals nominated, one of them an original from an arthouse French director and Sparks? In addition to a Black western, a sci-fi epic, a tennis biopic, a 1930s period piece that may be a comedy, a drama about The Troubles, and Red, White and Water? Ah, who knows, probably, maybe.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Leos Carax, Annette

Jon M. Chu, In the Heights

Lila Neugebauer, Red, White and Water

David O. Russell, Canterbury Glass

Baby, I'm telling you, either neither of them gets nominated at all, or the Oscar win goes to (only once nominated previously) Branagh or Chu. Maybe! All foreign arthouse favs get here eventually, maybe this is Carax's time to shine. Russell for that in-the-club prestige shine, Neugebauer just because, there you go.

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Canterbury Glass

Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Will Smith, King Richard

Feels like people want to nominate Collins or Dinklage for something - why not both? Charismatic Ramos in the lead role of what's sure to be a popular musical. Smith as King Richard, father of Venus and Serena, seems like either pure commercial play or his winning role. Bale in 30s suits for the director who got him a win and a surprise follow-up nod.

BEST ACTRESS

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

Belfast sounds like one of those coming-of-age stories, but set around the Troubles; the mom roles in these tend to be pretty good (Sarah Miles in Hope and Glory, Cicely Tyson in Sounder), so expect Balfe to make it in. Bombshell De Armas as bombshell not-quite-Marilyn seems too perfect, and they love a biopic - hence, too, why I predict nods for past nominee Chastain's Tammy Faye Bakker and past winner Hudson's Aretha Franklin. Winner Lawrence returns after some time away from the public.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter

Richard E. Grant, Everybody's Talking About Jamie

Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water

Delroy Lindo, The Harder They Fall

Mike Myers, Canterbury Glass

Lindo, never nominated, getting a nod a year after he should have won - that sounds right. Four-time nominee Dafoe, thisclose to a win, in a Paul Schrader film. Nominee Grant, the most pleasant man in showbiz, in drag in a musical. Henry, never nominated, probably will be one day, has multiple roles in some buzzy titles - just a matter of guesswork. Myers, never nominated, a comedian, in a 30s period piece for David O. Russell - hey, it could happen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Dear Evan Hansen

Chanté Adams, A Journal for Jordan

Judi Dench, Belfast

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Olga Merediz, In the Heights

Amy Adams and Glenn Close are the two "when's it gonna happen?" actresses; it's only right that they finally triumph in musicals, but Adams gets there first. Chanté Adams was terrific in The Photograph, a movie that didn't quite rise to her talents, and maybe a Denzel Washington flick will do her better. Houdyshell won a Tony for the same role; Merediz was nominated for a Tony for the same role. And Dench? She's been here before, but never for her work with frequent collaborator Branagh.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast - Kenneth Branagh

Canterbury Glass - David O. Russell

C'mon C'mon - Mike Mills

The Harder They Fall - Jeymes Samuel / Boaz Yakin

Red, White and Water - Elizabeth Sanders

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Cry Macho - Nick Schenk / N. Richard Nash

Dear Evan Hansen - Steven Levenson

Dune - Jon Spaihts / Denis Villeneuve / Eric Roth

The Humans - Stephen Karam

The Many Saints of Newark - David Chase / Lawrence Konner

Those are all the categories I guess this far in advance. 

You May Also Enjoy:

Predicting The Oscars, 2020-21 Edition

Lean and mean predictions for who's winning Oscars tomorrow night. 

I believe this will be a true "spread the wealth" year, with each of the eight Best Picture nominees getting at least one Oscar.

Here we go:

LIVE ACTION SHORT: "The Letter Room"

ANIMATED SHORT: "If Anything Happens I Love You"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "A Love Song for Latasha"

DOCUMENTARY FILM: Time

ANIMATED FILM: Soul

INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round

SONG: "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

SCORE: Soul

VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

SOUND: Sound of Metal

EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Pinocchio

COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTRESS: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

You May Also Enjoy:

ZergNet

Like us on Facebook

Coming Attraction, 2021 Edition

OK, let's get back to blogging...

Later this month, Oscar predictions - both this year's winners and next year's nominees.

In May, we're looking at the films of 1972, featuring Best Picture nominees Cabaret, Deliverance, The Emigrants, The Godfather and Sounder.

In June, it's the films of 1985, featuring Best Picture nominees The Color Purple, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Out of Africa, Prizzi's Honor and Witness.

In July, it's the films of 2021 so far.

And that's what's to come...soon.

You May Also Enjoy:

ZergNet

Like us on Facebook

The 93rd Oscar Nominations: Surprises, Etc.

Forty-one feature films nominated this morning, led by Mank with ten. By my count, there were five big surprises this Oscar Nomination morn. In order of shock:

1) 

Lakeith Stanfield nominated in Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. A shocker for two reasons: first of all, he was not tipped in any previous awards ceremony before this; but more importantly, he wasn't even campaigned as Supporting by Warner Bros.! So as not to compete, Stanfield was pushed for Lead and Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting. Both made it in Supporting, which makes me wonder how close Kaluuya came to pulling a Kate Winslet in The Reader-style category switcheroo. It's worth mentioning: I predicted Stanfield's nomination here back in April.

2) 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom under-performs. Nominated by almost every guild, leading the conversation in Best Actor, and my second favorite movie of 2020, Ma Rainey managed only five nominations - Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling - getting shut out of Best Adapted Screenplay (madness) and Best Picture (lunacy). 

3) 

Da 5 Bloods gets a nomination! I had feared that it would be completely shut out (certainly its absence in Best Editing and Best Actor makes one wonder how voters define "Best"), but fortunately, this top-tier Spike Lee joint will not go down in history as a This Had Oscar Buzz entrant. Lee's longtime collaborator Terence Blanchard was nominated for Best Score.

4) 

Only eight nominees in Best Picture. Many of my friends were predicting as many as ten, I predicted nine. The aforementioned absence of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom broke my heart; the absence of One Night in Miami..., which for a time looked to be a big contender for Best Director as well, was also pretty surprising. Nothing shocking included.

5)

Another Round's Thomas Vinterberg nominated for Best Director over Aaron Sorkin. An alternate choice for many predictors (my Oscar trivia teammate recently made this very prediction on Facebook, you'll have to take my word for it). Still, I'm surprised that he unseated Sorkin instead of David Fincher or Emerald Fennell. 

The final roster of nominees after the jump:

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Like it says on the box - or, in this case, the headline - these are what I think may be announced Monday morning when Nick and Priyanka Chopra Jonas present the nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards. A lot of guesswork this year, especially when it comes to the acting and writing categories, but I'd rather a hard-to-predict year than a trudge towards the inevitable, ya know?

My predictions, after the jump... 

The 2020 Hollmann Awards: Part Two

Nine films were honored yesterday in the first day of awardage. Take a look at what I said there, what I said about my Top Ten, at the full slate of nominees...then come back here and see if you saw any of this coming. You probably did! Anyway, day two begins.....now:

Best Original Screenplay

Miss Juneteenth

Channing Godfrey Peoples

2. Ainu Mosir, 3. Promising Young Woman, 4. Driveways, 5. A Sun

Miss Juneteenth really just missed my Best Picture lineup. Peoples' writing is specific and intimate, and while it makes sure we know exactly what Turquoise's situation is, a former beauty queen on trying to make ends meets, unable or unwilling to shake her ex, trying to make a better future for her daughter, it never feels blunt, never underlines unnecessarily. And it doesn't pull punches either, throwing realistic obstacles that aren't always overcome. Things get a little better, maybe; people get stronger, definitely. I can't wait to see what Peoples has in store for us.

The remaining eight, including Best Actor and Best Picture, after the jump...

The 2020 Hollmann Awards: Part One

You've had a week to look at my Top Ten and my nominees, a week to disagree and process. Today, we begin. It's Day One of the 2020 Hollmann Awards in 2021, with our first nine categories:

Best Supporting Actor

Brian Dennehy as Del

Driveways

2. Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 3. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal, 4. Colman Domingo in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 5. Courtney B. Vance in Uncorked

Dennehy's swan song is a beautiful performance delivered with a light touch. Through glances and subtleties of bearing, he communicates Del's loneliness, regrets, and care for others. Like the bingo game,  the seemingly offhanded way he gets nine-year-old Cody to help out Roger, a friend increasingly displaying symptoms of dementia, welcoming one person into the fold and helping the other without embarrassment. A tender portrayal. 

Eight more, including Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, after the jump: