The 30th Golden Globes

Ah, the Golden Globes! Awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association since 1944, they're a guaranteed mix of future Oscar nominees, bizarre curiosities, and genuinely good movies. As it is now, so it was in 1972 when, alongside eventual Academy Award nominees, these were the honored films:

Crimes of '72

When The Godfather won Best Picture, it became the fourth crime drama to do so. Crime seemed to be on the mind of the 1970s film community: The Godfather was the second of four consecutive Best Picture winners in the subgenre, and the first of three to completely center the criminals as the protagonists. Maybe it was the pessimism of the ongoing Vietnam War, maybe it was the way the Tate-LaBianca murders brought a violent end to a hopeful decade, maybe it was the loosening of restrictions and complete dismantling of the Production Code in 1968. Whatever the reason, crime was a big focus for the industry, from independent exploitation efforts to big studio programmers. Such as:

Old Friends of '72

In addition to what I'd never seen before, there are, of course, a good amount of 1972 movies I had. Cabaret, The Godfather, Man of La Mancha, and these...

Why '72?

I told myself I wasn't going to do another 70s retrospective.

After all, with 1970 just in the books back in December, that would make six editions of this retrospective series devoted to that one decade - more than any other! It was time to give more love to the 30s, the 40s, the 90s...

But then I went back home for an extended period of time. I saw family. And they all had recommendations. Well, not so much the kind of "You should see this!" recommendations, more like they reference a movie, I said I'd never seen it, they said, "You've never seen it?! You?! Oh, Walter, you got to see this movie!" So I started noting them down and, whether it says something about that year or their age, realized that every single movie they recommended was from 1972! The signs were clear: I must close the gap between 1968-1971 and 1973-1976.

These were the films they recommended:

A Year Ahead: 94th Oscars Predictions

The Oscar dust has settled, as far as I'm concerned. I only correctly guessed 14/22 of the winners, was a little disappointed by the Best Actress, pleasantly surprised by Best Actor, kicking myself for having changed my Cinematography prediction...water under the bridge now.

This means it's time to start thinking about next year's Oscars! Will next year's qualification period run from March 1, 2021-February 28, 2022, to keep with the weird timeline established out of panic? Or March 1, 2021-December 31 2021, a truncated version to get us back on track? Or will they go back to January 1, 2021-December 31, 2021, allowing January/February releases to qualify as long as they weren't nominated at the 93rd Oscars? Stranger things have happened, certainly. 

Still, Oscar does have its favorites. When I predicted this past Oscar ceremony a year ago, I foresaw the nominations for Minari in Best Picture, Anthony Hopkins in Best Actor, and LaKeith Stanfield in Best Supporting Actor, among other nods. Meanwhile, I went 0/5 in both Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, though the fact that six of the eight films I predicted across the two categories were pushed to late-2021/early-2022 absolves me of any guilt. 

Let's see what happens, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Annette

Belfast

Canterbury Glass

Cyrano

Dear Evan Hansen

Dune

The Harder They Fall

In the Heights

King Richard

Red, White, and Water

I don't know, I'm taking a swing - four musicals nominated, one of them an original from an arthouse French director and Sparks? In addition to a Black western, a sci-fi epic, a tennis biopic, a 1930s period piece that may be a comedy, a drama about The Troubles, and Red, White and Water? Ah, who knows, probably, maybe.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Leos Carax, Annette

Jon M. Chu, In the Heights

Lila Neugebauer, Red, White and Water

David O. Russell, Canterbury Glass

Baby, I'm telling you, either neither of them gets nominated at all, or the Oscar win goes to (only once nominated previously) Branagh or Chu. Maybe! All foreign arthouse favs get here eventually, maybe this is Carax's time to shine. Russell for that in-the-club prestige shine, Neugebauer just because, there you go.

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Canterbury Glass

Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Will Smith, King Richard

Feels like people want to nominate Collins or Dinklage for something - why not both? Charismatic Ramos in the lead role of what's sure to be a popular musical. Smith as King Richard, father of Venus and Serena, seems like either pure commercial play or his winning role. Bale in 30s suits for the director who got him a win and a surprise follow-up nod.

BEST ACTRESS

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

Belfast sounds like one of those coming-of-age stories, but set around the Troubles; the mom roles in these tend to be pretty good (Sarah Miles in Hope and Glory, Cicely Tyson in Sounder), so expect Balfe to make it in. Bombshell De Armas as bombshell not-quite-Marilyn seems too perfect, and they love a biopic - hence, too, why I predict nods for past nominee Chastain's Tammy Faye Bakker and past winner Hudson's Aretha Franklin. Winner Lawrence returns after some time away from the public.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter

Richard E. Grant, Everybody's Talking About Jamie

Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water

Delroy Lindo, The Harder They Fall

Mike Myers, Canterbury Glass

Lindo, never nominated, getting a nod a year after he should have won - that sounds right. Four-time nominee Dafoe, thisclose to a win, in a Paul Schrader film. Nominee Grant, the most pleasant man in showbiz, in drag in a musical. Henry, never nominated, probably will be one day, has multiple roles in some buzzy titles - just a matter of guesswork. Myers, never nominated, a comedian, in a 30s period piece for David O. Russell - hey, it could happen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Dear Evan Hansen

Chanté Adams, A Journal for Jordan

Judi Dench, Belfast

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Olga Merediz, In the Heights

Amy Adams and Glenn Close are the two "when's it gonna happen?" actresses; it's only right that they finally triumph in musicals, but Adams gets there first. Chanté Adams was terrific in The Photograph, a movie that didn't quite rise to her talents, and maybe a Denzel Washington flick will do her better. Houdyshell won a Tony for the same role; Merediz was nominated for a Tony for the same role. And Dench? She's been here before, but never for her work with frequent collaborator Branagh.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast - Kenneth Branagh

Canterbury Glass - David O. Russell

C'mon C'mon - Mike Mills

The Harder They Fall - Jeymes Samuel / Boaz Yakin

Red, White and Water - Elizabeth Sanders

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Cry Macho - Nick Schenk / N. Richard Nash

Dear Evan Hansen - Steven Levenson

Dune - Jon Spaihts / Denis Villeneuve / Eric Roth

The Humans - Stephen Karam

The Many Saints of Newark - David Chase / Lawrence Konner

Those are all the categories I guess this far in advance. 

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Predicting The Oscars, 2020-21 Edition

Lean and mean predictions for who's winning Oscars tomorrow night. 

I believe this will be a true "spread the wealth" year, with each of the eight Best Picture nominees getting at least one Oscar.

Here we go:

LIVE ACTION SHORT: "The Letter Room"

ANIMATED SHORT: "If Anything Happens I Love You"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "A Love Song for Latasha"

DOCUMENTARY FILM: Time

ANIMATED FILM: Soul

INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round

SONG: "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

SCORE: Soul

VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

SOUND: Sound of Metal

EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Pinocchio

COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTRESS: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

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Coming Attraction, 2021 Edition

OK, let's get back to blogging...

Later this month, Oscar predictions - both this year's winners and next year's nominees.

In May, we're looking at the films of 1972, featuring Best Picture nominees Cabaret, Deliverance, The Emigrants, The Godfather and Sounder.

In June, it's the films of 1985, featuring Best Picture nominees The Color Purple, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Out of Africa, Prizzi's Honor and Witness.

In July, it's the films of 2021 so far.

And that's what's to come...soon.

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