Halfway Oscar Predix: 2014 Edition

FINALLY, months later than usual, my "early bird" predictions for the Academy Awards! Not every category, though -- just the Actings, Screenplays, Picture, Director. It's hard enough to do those eight, don't make me do more!

BEST PICTURE

Foxcatcher

Fury

Gone Girl

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Selma

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Birdman

The Imitation Game

As I've usually done, I've put up the five I expect to get in, plus the next five in order of expectation. One never knows if it's going to be five or ten -- although, lately, it seems most likely that the answer is nine. Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner are Cannes titles that went over extremely well. Fury certainly looks like it has the goods, and is a World War II tale besides. Gone Girl may be just a thriller, but when Fincher's at the helm, it's never "just" anything. And Interstellar for that blockbuster VFX spectacle slot.

I imagine it'll be hard, especially with the passing of Louis Zamperini, to ignore Unbroken, and given the subject matter, so will Selma, especially a year after 12 Years a Slave (though expect to hear a lot of, "Aw, but wasn't last year enough" griping from terrible people). The Grand Budapest Hotel has what it takes to take it all the way. Birdman, perhaps, if it's more than the lead performance. And The Imitation Game, maybe.

Last year: 3/9 - American Hustle, Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street 
Foxcatcher and The Monuments Men were both pushed to 2014; August: Osage County, The Fifth Estate, Rush and Fruitvale Station did not meet expectations; The Counselor was a full-on disaster.

BEST DIRECTOR

Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller

Fury - David Ayer

Gone Girl - David Fincher

Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh

Selma - Ava DuVernay

Links up to my main Five in Best Pic, with the exception of Ava DuVernay in the place of Christopher Nolan. I'm going out on a limb here, I know -- DuVernay, if nominated, would be the first woman of color to be so honored, and she'd have to beat out Angelina Jolie. On the other hand, if the film is great, who can resist a narrative like that?

Last Year: 1/5 - David O. Russell, American Hustle 
Again, I had two 2014 releases in there -- Foxcatcher and The Monuments Men.

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Spall is the no-brainer -- character actor, been in a number of beloved films, liked, always working, never-nominated. It's His Time. Which is also what gets Michael Keaton in for Birdman, a film that not only riffs on Keaton's own persona, but is also directed by an Oscar darling. I don't think, a year after 12 Years a Slave, the Academy will be able to ignore Selma, no matter how many people whine about going back to that well (and they will, make no mistake), so Oyelowo gets in. Cumberbatch and Carell I'm most iffy on.

Last Year: 3/5 - Christian Bale, American Hustle; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
For the second year in a row! Let's hope that kind of pattern sticks!

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

Cannes love doesn't always translate into Oscar love; nevertheless, let's see if Julianne Moore's aging actress can get in -- it worked for Gloria Swanson, Bette Davis, Annette Bening, etc. I know nothing about Gone Girl, but others who've read it refer to Rosamund Pike's character being the female lead. And dammit, isn't it time we honor Pike for something? One could say the same for Emily Blunt, and while I know that Meryl Streep's witch is the standout character, the synopsis makes it sound like the story revolves around the Baker and His Wife -- so let's take a chance. Mia Wasikowska's been terrific for a long time -- is the solo desert trek the one that gets her in? And, of course, Amy Adams, who even if she's left off the ballot, will make it to the Hollywood Reporter roundtable.

Last Year: 0/5
Hahahaha! In my defense, I predicted Julia Roberts, not expecting them to toss her into Supporting, especially since she's the center of the film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Liev Schreiber, Pawn Sacrifice

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

With the most recent Foxcatcher teaser focusing on Channing Tatum, it appears that he may be co-lead with Steve Carell. But come on -- when was the last time you saw that kind of honesty in a campaign? I believe Ruffalo can make it, that Waltz will be embraced once more, that Simmons can spin his Sundance buzz into a nomination, and that Schreiber has a Russian accent in a hooky role (the rival to American chess master Bobby Fischer).

Last Year: 0/5
BUT BUT BUT -- Bruce Dern made it into Lead. So, come on. Am I really that wrong?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Dorothy Atkinson, Mr. Turner

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Margot Robbie, Suite Francaise

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Reese Witherspoon, Inherent Vice

Atkinson caught some attention at Cannes, and Keira Knightley has been putting in great work for a decade now. The rest of the lineup I'm not as confident in. I know nothing of Suite Francaise, but I know Margot Robbie is wicked hot -- and following up the Long Island sexpot of The Wolf of Wall Street with this kind of period role is sure to get some attention. Naomi Watts looks to be sexy, funny, and Russian in the St. Vincent trailer -- do you think she and Liev practiced constantly at home? Witherspoon is also in Wild this year, which may be too similar to Tracks to get traction -- but perhaps a role in Paul Thomas Anderson's hippie noir will do the trick.

Last Year: 0/5
You know what? Never mind. Ignore this whole post. Though again -- category fraud is what did me in. This time, I anticipated fraud for Streep, but they put her in Lead instead.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Nicolas Giacobone/Alexander Dinelaris/Armando Bo

Boyhood - Richard Linklater

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson/Hugo Guinness

Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh

Selma - Ava DuVernay/Paul Webb

Last Year: 2/5 - American Hustle; Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye/Dan Futterman, based on an unpublished manuscript by Mark Schultz

Gone Girl - Gillian Flynn, based on her novel

Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson, based on the novel by Thomas Pynchon

Rosewater - Jon Stewart, from Then They Came for Me by Maziar Bahari/Aimee Molloy

Unbroken - Joel & Ethan Coen/Richard LaGravenese/William Nicholson, from the book by Laura Hillenbrand

Last Year: 2/5 - 12 Years a Slave; Before Midnight

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1953 Retro Hollmann Awards: Part 3 -- The End!

Here endeth my month-long celebration of the films of 1953. Of the twelve categories we've seen so far, eight films have been honored: The Cruel Sea (Sound), The Importance of Being Earnest (Costume Design, Ensemble), Man on a Tightrope (Makeup), Mogambo (Actor), Pickup on South Street (Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing), The Robe (Score, Production Design), Titanic (Supporting Actor) and War of the Worlds (Visual Effects).

Now, we come to the Big Four -- Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay -- plus Cinematography, and just to mess with ya, Original Song.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

5. "Kid's Song/Because We're Kids" from The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T
Music by Friedrich Hollaender
Lyrics by Dr. Seuss


3. "The Deadwood Stage" from Calamity Jane
Music by Sammy Fain
Lyrics by Paul Francis Webster


2. "Just Blew in from the Windy City" from Calamity Jane

Music by Sammy Fain

Lyrics by Paul Francis Webster

4. "Hi-Lili, Hi-Lili, Hi-Lo" from Lili
Music by Bronislau Kaper
Lyrics by Helen Deutsch


1. "The Blue Pacific Blues" from Miss Sadie Thompson
Music by Lester Lee
Lyrics by Allan Roberts


Weren't that lovely? Continue after the jump, as we wrap up 1953...

1953 Retro Hollmann Awards: Part 2

It's Day Two of the Retro Hollmann Awards, honoring the best of 1953! 

Yesterday, The Cruel Sea, Pickup on South Street, Titanic, and The War of the Worlds all picked up one award each; The Importance of Being Earnest got two!

And this is a rare treat -- one of the acting categories here doesn't have a single Oscar nominee to correspond with! Is it Best Actor? Best Supporting Actress? Find out as the awardage continues...

BEST SCORE

3. Beneath the 12-Mile Reef
Bernard Herrmann


4. Invaders from Mars
Raoul Kraushaar


2. Lili
Bronislau Kaper


1. The Robe
Alfred Newman


5. Shane
Victor Young


So closes the entertainment portion. Continue after the jump for more...

1953 Retro Hollmann Awards: Part 1

And so begins the first day of the Retro Hollmann Awards of 1953!

It was a long process, a marathon of "this one, no this one!" Constant changes, choices worthy of Sophie. Finally culminating in what you now see here.

What did I have to choose from, though? You know I saw more than just the Academy Award Nominees. Here is the complete list of 1953 releases I saw, in alphabetical order:

The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T

Above and Beyond

All the Brothers were Valiant

The Band Wagon

Battles of Chief Pontiac

Beneath the 12-Mile Reef

The Big Heat

The Bigamist

A Blueprint for Murder

Calamity Jane

Call Me Madam

Captain Scarface

The Captain's Paradise

City That Never Sleeps

The Cruel Sea

The Desert Rats

Fear and Desire

From Here to Eternity

Gentlemen Prefer Blondes

Girl on the Run

Glen or Glenda?

The Hitch-Hiker

Hondo

House of Wax

How to Marry a Millionaire

I, the Jury

I Confess

The Importance of Being Earnest

Invaders from Mars

Jennifer

The Joe Louis Story

Julius Caesar

Kiss Me Kate

Knights of the Round Table

Lili

The Limping Man

Little Fugitive

The Man in the Attic

Man on a Tightrope

Martin Luther

The Maze

Miss Sadie Thompson

The Mississippi Gambler

Mogambo

The Moon is Blue

The Naked Spur

Niagara

Peter Pan

Pickup on South Street

The Robe

Roman Holiday

Salome

Seminole

Shane

Sins of Jezebel

Small Town Girl

Stalag 17

The Story of Three Loves

Titanic

Torch Song

Vicki

War of the Worlds

Wicked Woman

The Wild One

Young Bess

That's a total of 65 films, the usual amount for the Retro series. I know that seems low, but I do what I can.

The first six categories, for a total of 18, are: Best Sound, Best Visual Effects (an honorary award to War of the Worlds, that year, but I'll give it a full category), Best Supporting Actor, Best Costume Design, Best Ensemble (not an Academy category), and Best Editing!

Shall we begin?

Picture, 1953

Whew! Sorry for the delay! But now, without any further ado, the nominees for Best Picture, 1953!

(After the jump, I mean)

Actress, 1953

Talk about thinking with your dick. 

We have Leslie Caron, all wide-eyed innocence in Lili. We have Audrey Hepburn, all wide-eyed innocence in Roman Holiday. And we have Maggie McNamara, all side-eyed semi-innocence in The Moon is Blue. All short-haired brunettes being romanced by older men, all new stars (though Caron had recently burst onto the scene in Best Picture An American in Paris). 

Then there's Ava Gardner -- few considered her a good actress, all considered her one of the sexiest sirens to ever hit the screen. The first we see of her in Mogambo, she's in the shower, rebuffing Clark Gable -- but you know from her body language (cue Ursula) that she's open to a roll in the sack. A great performance, though.

Another great performance? Deborah Kerr in From Here to Eternity. Her persona was positively virginal; here, she's an adulterous wife getting hot and heavy in the sand with Burt Lancaster. Va-va-voom! A big star, she's here in the Lead category -- though in my mind, she's strictly supporting.

None of these are bad performances, but when three of these roles have sex at the forefront, and three of them are wispy dream girls (look at you, Maggie McNamara, getting into both categories), it ain't exactly the talent that's being evaluated here. Especially when, waiting in the sidelines, is 50-year-old Jean Arthur being amazing in Shane, but you know. Not sexy enough.

But there's no sense in getting huffy -- these are all fine performances. Here are the nominees for Best Actress...

Director, 1953

Of all the categories, this and Best Picture were the two that had me in constant back-and-forth. At first, for instance, I gave George Stevens a lower score -- but the more I thought of Shane, the more I appreciated, admired, and adored it. Then there was my own wrassling with the results -- no, it can't be. That can't be my choice!

But it is. As unexpected as it may seem, I gotta be me.