Gold Rush 2015 (Part One)

I'm so glad -- one of my oldest and dearest friends, The March King, and I were able to talk Oscar agin this year, for our annual intake of the Gold Rush! These aren't predictions, nor are they reviews -- they're a perfect representation, though, of the conversation he and I have been having since we were adolescents.

Please enjoy this edition of the Gold Rush, after the jump.

Silver Screener: So our timing on this is excellent because I just finished watching THE JUDGE!

March King: And?

SS:  I liked it!

MK:  But was it Oscar worthy? 

The OSCAR NOMINATIONS!

Only the Oscars could get me up at this time! It is 5:29am, pitch dark outside, everything silent but for the clip-clop of some passerby outside...and the hum of the press on the live feed. This year, all 24 categories will be announced live, but just so no one gets confused, Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs and Chris Pine are still doing the sexy half. Here's Alfonso Cuaron and JJ Abrams with the first batch. Neat!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Begin Again - "Lost Stars"
Beyond the Lights - "Grateful"
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me - "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
The LEGO Movie - "Everything is Awesome"
Selma - "Glory"
4/5
Aw, the Glen Campbell song made it. Can't be mad about that -- especially since "Lost Stars", "Grateful", and "Glory" all made it in, too.

VFX
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
3/5
Whoa, no Godzilla! Whoa! OK, genuinely surprised by that. Wow. Good for X-Men though!

DOC SHORT
Crisis Hotline
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth

DOCUMENTARY
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
4/5
Roger Ebert doc Life Itself left off final ballot; The Salt of the Earth is in.

FILM EDITING
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
4/5
No Birdman here does surprise me, since this is usually where Best Picture frontrunners secure their bids. But Whiplash was astonishingly-edited, so no complaints here.

SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
2/5
OK, but like, where's Fury? Seriously. Where is it?

SOUND MIXING
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
3/5
I just didn't expect all the Birdman love in the sound categories!

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
4/5
Interstellar makes it in over The Theory of Everything! Good choice, Academy -- I happen to agree!

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call

ANIMATED SHORT
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and my Molton
Single Life

ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
4/5
Holy shit, no The LEGO Movie! 

Pre-Nominations: Oscar Predictions

Can you believe the Oscar Nominees are tomorrow? More, can you believe that the Critics' Choice Awards are the same night? Does anyone else think that ceremony's gonna rub salt in more than a few wounds? Shouldn't there be two days between Oscar Noms and everything else, just to give us time to heal?

No matter. My alarm is already set to go off at 5:20am Pacific Time so I can watch, for the first time, all 24 categories announced LIVE on YouTube (right here, in fact: https://www.youtube.com/embed/U1G_C6ygtRA). But before I do that ... can I correctly guess how it's going to go? Let's find out!

(And for a look at how things would go in a perfect world, check out my personal ballot for the Ninth Annual Hollmann Awards!).

The predix...after the jump...

A Crystal Ball for the Golden Globes

My goodness, the Golden Globes are announcing their nominees tomorrow, too?! Awards Season will be the death of me...in due time.

There's no telling which way the Globes will go -- mostly because I'm never sure what genre certain movies are pushed for -- these are the same people who felt Iron Man should compete in Drama instead of Comedy, after all. They're all crazy.

Nevertheless -- let's try it. Let's try predicting the Globes.

THE DRAMA CATEGORIES

Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
 (the actors, comedy/musical, and more after the jump)

The Actors Speak: SAG Award Nominees

And the Screen Actors Guild Awards film nominees for the year 2014 are:

For Best Stunt Ensemble:
FURY
GET ON UP (say what now? a sign of popularity?)
THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES
UNBROKEN
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

For Best Supporting Actor:
ROBERT DUVALL, THE JUDGE
ETHAN HAWKE, BOYHOOD
EDWARD NORTON, BIRDMAN
MARK RUFFALO, FOXCATCHER
J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH

For Best Supporting Actress:
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, THE IMITATION GAME
EMMA STONE, BIRDMAN
MERYL STREEP, INTO THE WOODS
NAOMI WATTS, ST. VINCENT (whoa whaaaaat)

For Best Actor:
STEVE CARELL, FOXCATCHER
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH, THE IMITATION GAME
JAKE GYLLENHAAL, NIGHTCRAWLER (yes, amazing!)
MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN
EDDIE REDMAYNE, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

For Best Actress:
JENNIFER ANISTON, CAKE (well!)
FELICITY JONES, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE
ROSAMUND PIKE, GONE GIRL
REESE WITHERSPOON, WILD

For Best Ensemble:
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (yay!)
THE IMITATION GAME
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (nnngggh)

***KEEP EVERYTHING BELOW THIS MESSAGE AT THE BOTTOM OF EACH POST - DELETE MESSAGE BEFORE POSTING**
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I Predict....2014 SAG Awards Edition

In just a little over twelve hours, the Screen Actor Guild will announce their nominees for the 2014 film season. So what's going to make? Let this spirit show you visions of what might be....

For Best Ensemble, I predict....
BIRDMAN (because it's a large ensemble of all-stars physically sharing screen time together)
BOYHOOD (because what actor would resist an ensemble crafting characters over 12 years?)
THE IMITATION GAME (because the British are irresistible)
INTO THE WOODS (because boy do they love musicals -- see also Nine)
SELMA (because it's a large ensemble in a Historically Important film)

For Best Actor, I predict....
CHADWICK BOSEMAN, GET ON UP (twist!)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH, THE IMITATION GAME (frontrunner!)
MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN (also a frontrunner!)
DAVID OYELOWO, SELMA (purported dark-horse who's a frontrunner!)
EDDIE REDMAYNE, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (everyone's a frontrunner!)

For Best Actress, I predict....
FELICITY JONES, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE (frontrunner!)
ROSAMUND PIKE, GONE GIRL
HILARY SWANK, THE HOMESMAN (well, Conviction and so forth...)
REESE WITHERSPOON, WILD

For Best Supporting Actor, I predict....
ROBERT DUVALL, THE JUDGE (well, Get Low and so forth...)
ETHAN HAWKE, BOYHOOD
EDWARD NORTON, BIRDMAN
MARK RUFFALO, FOXCATCHER
J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH (frontrunner!)

For Best Supporting Actress, I predict....
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, BOYHOOD (frontrunner!)
JESSICA CHASTAIN, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR
LAURA DERN, WILD
ANNA KENDRICK, INTO THE WOODS
MERYL STREEP, INTO THE WOODS

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Halfway Oscar Predix: 2014 Edition

FINALLY, months later than usual, my "early bird" predictions for the Academy Awards! Not every category, though -- just the Actings, Screenplays, Picture, Director. It's hard enough to do those eight, don't make me do more!

BEST PICTURE

Foxcatcher

Fury

Gone Girl

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Selma

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Birdman

The Imitation Game

As I've usually done, I've put up the five I expect to get in, plus the next five in order of expectation. One never knows if it's going to be five or ten -- although, lately, it seems most likely that the answer is nine. Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner are Cannes titles that went over extremely well. Fury certainly looks like it has the goods, and is a World War II tale besides. Gone Girl may be just a thriller, but when Fincher's at the helm, it's never "just" anything. And Interstellar for that blockbuster VFX spectacle slot.

I imagine it'll be hard, especially with the passing of Louis Zamperini, to ignore Unbroken, and given the subject matter, so will Selma, especially a year after 12 Years a Slave (though expect to hear a lot of, "Aw, but wasn't last year enough" griping from terrible people). The Grand Budapest Hotel has what it takes to take it all the way. Birdman, perhaps, if it's more than the lead performance. And The Imitation Game, maybe.

Last year: 3/9 - American Hustle, Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street 
Foxcatcher and The Monuments Men were both pushed to 2014; August: Osage County, The Fifth Estate, Rush and Fruitvale Station did not meet expectations; The Counselor was a full-on disaster.

BEST DIRECTOR

Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller

Fury - David Ayer

Gone Girl - David Fincher

Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh

Selma - Ava DuVernay

Links up to my main Five in Best Pic, with the exception of Ava DuVernay in the place of Christopher Nolan. I'm going out on a limb here, I know -- DuVernay, if nominated, would be the first woman of color to be so honored, and she'd have to beat out Angelina Jolie. On the other hand, if the film is great, who can resist a narrative like that?

Last Year: 1/5 - David O. Russell, American Hustle 
Again, I had two 2014 releases in there -- Foxcatcher and The Monuments Men.

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

David Oyelowo, Selma

Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Spall is the no-brainer -- character actor, been in a number of beloved films, liked, always working, never-nominated. It's His Time. Which is also what gets Michael Keaton in for Birdman, a film that not only riffs on Keaton's own persona, but is also directed by an Oscar darling. I don't think, a year after 12 Years a Slave, the Academy will be able to ignore Selma, no matter how many people whine about going back to that well (and they will, make no mistake), so Oyelowo gets in. Cumberbatch and Carell I'm most iffy on.

Last Year: 3/5 - Christian Bale, American Hustle; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave 
For the second year in a row! Let's hope that kind of pattern sticks!

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

Cannes love doesn't always translate into Oscar love; nevertheless, let's see if Julianne Moore's aging actress can get in -- it worked for Gloria Swanson, Bette Davis, Annette Bening, etc. I know nothing about Gone Girl, but others who've read it refer to Rosamund Pike's character being the female lead. And dammit, isn't it time we honor Pike for something? One could say the same for Emily Blunt, and while I know that Meryl Streep's witch is the standout character, the synopsis makes it sound like the story revolves around the Baker and His Wife -- so let's take a chance. Mia Wasikowska's been terrific for a long time -- is the solo desert trek the one that gets her in? And, of course, Amy Adams, who even if she's left off the ballot, will make it to the Hollywood Reporter roundtable.

Last Year: 0/5
Hahahaha! In my defense, I predicted Julia Roberts, not expecting them to toss her into Supporting, especially since she's the center of the film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Liev Schreiber, Pawn Sacrifice

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

With the most recent Foxcatcher teaser focusing on Channing Tatum, it appears that he may be co-lead with Steve Carell. But come on -- when was the last time you saw that kind of honesty in a campaign? I believe Ruffalo can make it, that Waltz will be embraced once more, that Simmons can spin his Sundance buzz into a nomination, and that Schreiber has a Russian accent in a hooky role (the rival to American chess master Bobby Fischer).

Last Year: 0/5
BUT BUT BUT -- Bruce Dern made it into Lead. So, come on. Am I really that wrong?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Dorothy Atkinson, Mr. Turner

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Margot Robbie, Suite Francaise

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Reese Witherspoon, Inherent Vice

Atkinson caught some attention at Cannes, and Keira Knightley has been putting in great work for a decade now. The rest of the lineup I'm not as confident in. I know nothing of Suite Francaise, but I know Margot Robbie is wicked hot -- and following up the Long Island sexpot of The Wolf of Wall Street with this kind of period role is sure to get some attention. Naomi Watts looks to be sexy, funny, and Russian in the St. Vincent trailer -- do you think she and Liev practiced constantly at home? Witherspoon is also in Wild this year, which may be too similar to Tracks to get traction -- but perhaps a role in Paul Thomas Anderson's hippie noir will do the trick.

Last Year: 0/5
You know what? Never mind. Ignore this whole post. Though again -- category fraud is what did me in. This time, I anticipated fraud for Streep, but they put her in Lead instead.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Nicolas Giacobone/Alexander Dinelaris/Armando Bo

Boyhood - Richard Linklater

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson/Hugo Guinness

Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh

Selma - Ava DuVernay/Paul Webb

Last Year: 2/5 - American Hustle; Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye/Dan Futterman, based on an unpublished manuscript by Mark Schultz

Gone Girl - Gillian Flynn, based on her novel

Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson, based on the novel by Thomas Pynchon

Rosewater - Jon Stewart, from Then They Came for Me by Maziar Bahari/Aimee Molloy

Unbroken - Joel & Ethan Coen/Richard LaGravenese/William Nicholson, from the book by Laura Hillenbrand

Last Year: 2/5 - 12 Years a Slave; Before Midnight

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