Over at
The Film Experience, Nathaniel Rogers has begun his annual
April Foolish Oscar predictions, which means the race can finally begin again! Here's what
I think
may be nominated next February at the 91st Academy Awards, keeping in mind that none of these films have screened, no one knows anything, and I am spotty with my advance predictions.
Previous editions:
2017,
2015,
2014,
2013,
2012,
2011,
2010
Best Picture
Backseat
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
On the Basis of Sex
These first five are my "most likely". I know, I know:
three biopics? In a post-
Shape of Water world? What is this, 2005? But hear me out.
Adam McKay returns with his first film since
The Big Short, finding political filmmaking to his liking with the Dick Cheney biopic
Backseat. If it doesn't leave too bad a taste in people's mouths - it could go either way between "Boy, we thought we had it bad
then" and "And
that's why we're in this mess
now" - this could be the frontrunner.
I also have the creative teams behind
Moonlight and
La La Land facing off once again with, respectively,
If Beale Street Could Talk (an adaptation of a novel by James Baldwin) and
First Man (an adaptation of a biography of Neal Armstrong). And let me say this,: if
Backseat isn't the frontrunner, expect
First Man to step in, as both a look back at a time you could be proud to be an American and an apology for
La La Land not actually winning.
It'd be crazy not to have a woman-led film in the conversation, so expect Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic
On the Basis of Sex to hit big. And for my fifth slot, after some hemming and hawing, I went with
another woman-led film...blockbuster crowdpleaser
Mary Poppins Returns. Because right now, anything is possible!
As for the rest of the lineup, here's what I expect, in order of likelihood:
