Why Will Smith May Benefit from the Jane Fonda Rule

I am giving my full Oscar predictions tomorrow, but I want to talk about Best Actor right now. Actually, I want to tell you why I'll be predicting Will Smith for Concussion to be among the nominees.

I call it The Jane Fonda Rule.

Jane Fonda, in case you didn't know, is a two-time Oscar winning actress, Academy Member, blogger, and Tweeter. And it's as a blogger and a Tweeter that she has stumped for certain films and performances over the past couple of years.

CHECK IT OUT AFTER THE JUMP.

The OSCAR NOMINATIONS!

Only the Oscars could get me up at this time! It is 5:29am, pitch dark outside, everything silent but for the clip-clop of some passerby outside...and the hum of the press on the live feed. This year, all 24 categories will be announced live, but just so no one gets confused, Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs and Chris Pine are still doing the sexy half. Here's Alfonso Cuaron and JJ Abrams with the first batch. Neat!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Begin Again - "Lost Stars"
Beyond the Lights - "Grateful"
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me - "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
The LEGO Movie - "Everything is Awesome"
Selma - "Glory"
4/5
Aw, the Glen Campbell song made it. Can't be mad about that -- especially since "Lost Stars", "Grateful", and "Glory" all made it in, too.

VFX
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
3/5
Whoa, no Godzilla! Whoa! OK, genuinely surprised by that. Wow. Good for X-Men though!

DOC SHORT
Crisis Hotline
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth

DOCUMENTARY
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
4/5
Roger Ebert doc Life Itself left off final ballot; The Salt of the Earth is in.

FILM EDITING
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
4/5
No Birdman here does surprise me, since this is usually where Best Picture frontrunners secure their bids. But Whiplash was astonishingly-edited, so no complaints here.

SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
2/5
OK, but like, where's Fury? Seriously. Where is it?

SOUND MIXING
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
3/5
I just didn't expect all the Birdman love in the sound categories!

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
4/5
Interstellar makes it in over The Theory of Everything! Good choice, Academy -- I happen to agree!

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call

ANIMATED SHORT
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and my Molton
Single Life

ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
4/5
Holy shit, no The LEGO Movie! 

Pre-Nominations: Oscar Predictions

Can you believe the Oscar Nominees are tomorrow? More, can you believe that the Critics' Choice Awards are the same night? Does anyone else think that ceremony's gonna rub salt in more than a few wounds? Shouldn't there be two days between Oscar Noms and everything else, just to give us time to heal?

No matter. My alarm is already set to go off at 5:20am Pacific Time so I can watch, for the first time, all 24 categories announced LIVE on YouTube (right here, in fact: https://www.youtube.com/embed/U1G_C6ygtRA). But before I do that ... can I correctly guess how it's going to go? Let's find out!

(And for a look at how things would go in a perfect world, check out my personal ballot for the Ninth Annual Hollmann Awards!).

The predix...after the jump...