Shock and Awe: Oscar Nomination Morn

Here is the beginning of my post.

Yes, of course I was up at 5:20 PST to watch the Oscr nominations live. I am obsessed.

Between bouts of uncomfortable schtick with Oscar host Seth MacFarlane and dream girl Emma Stone, the Academy pulled a fast one. No one got 100% on their predictions, I guarantee that right now.

The biggest surprise, I think, was the Best Director category: I knew Hooper was out, but the final list also excludes Kathryn Bigelow and former frontrunner Ben Affleck! They were considered the big locks, with many predicting their respective films to take home Best Picture. Gonna be hard to do that without a Director nom, although their films were Best Pic nominated.

Next surprise: Love for The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Silver Linings Playbook. All three were more popular than I'd imagined, with Silver Linings netting four acting nominations in addition to its nods in Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture. Beasts star Quvenzhane Wallis made history as the youngest Best Actress nominee of all time (she's nine!), while all three of The Master's stars were nominated.

Could this be due to the new voting process? Word spread that the new online balloting system was troubling older Academy members, leading many to fear that their votes would be miscounted or not processed at all. Looking at these nominees, they may not have been wrong -- although thank God, if so. This could not be a more fresh and exciting group of nominees.

Eschewing alphabetical order to make the suspense all the more agonizing, here, in order of their announcement, are the eleven categories featured on the live broadcast:

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Robert De Niro. Silver Linings Playbook

Alan Arkin, Argo

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

 

SONG

Before My Time - Chasing Ice

Suddenly - Les Miserables

Pi's Lullaby - Life of Pi

Everybody Needs a Best Friend - Ted

Skyfall - Skyfall

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

"The Academy said YES!"

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Amy Adams, The Master

ANIMATED FEATURE

Frankenweenie

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

ParaNorman

Brave

FOREIGN FILM

Amour

No

War Witch

A Royal Affair

Kon-Tiki

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Beasts of the Southern Wild - Lucy Alibar/Benh Zeitlin

Argo - Chris Terrio

Lincoln - Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Life of Pi - David Magee

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Flight - John Gatins

Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal

Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino

Amour - Michael Haneke

Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola

DIRECTOR

"Where are youuuuu? Why do you hiiiiiide?"

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Michael Haneke, Amour

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Denzel Washington, Flight

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

ACTRESS

Nothing, Emmanuelle. For you, anyway.

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

PICTURE

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Amour

Django Unchained

Argo

I love that Zeitlin got in, but I think my favorite nomination is The Pirates! Band of Misfits for Best Animated Feature. 

You sly little devil, you.

Meanwhile, Anna Karenina gets the love it deserves, Life of Pi gets more mentions than I thought possible, my beloved Cloud Atlas is left in the dust despite it boasting INCREDIBLE production design and visual effects, and Skyfall corrects 35 years of Bond snubs by getting into four more categories.

The rest of the field:

Crystal Ball, Golden Trophy

With Oscar nominations happening in just 4 and a half hours, it's time to join the chorus of bloggers and predict! The nominees!
I know 1:00AM PST may seem a little late to jump on this bandwagon, but it's fine. You'll be up early to watch the nominations live anyway, so I just became the most relevant Oscarologist.

Without any further ado....

BEST PICTURE

I've never seen a season like this before. Were there only five slots open, I know exactly who I'd pick, but there aren't. Anywhere from five to ten films could be nominated, based on voters' passion -- and if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close could get in last year, what could stop The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel?

So, let me think of the films that I absolutely could not imagine being left off the role call:

ARGO

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

LES MISERABLES

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

ZERO DARK THIRTY

As well as anything I imagine will get in based on passion, visibility, etc.:

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

DJANGO UNCHAINED

MOONRISE KINGDOM

Making nine nominees for Best Picture, at most. By the way, if there were only five nominees, I would expect Life of Pi to miss from those first six.

BEST DIRECTOR 

Now what? The DGA nominations have only repeated six times in Oscar History - 1977, 1981, 1998, 2002, 2005 and 2009. You'll notice that half of those instances is within the last ten years. I hope -- I need -- a Tarantino or an Anderson (either, really) to make it in, but I have this awful fear that yesterday's dull line-up is destined to repeat tomorrow morning.

These predictions, and more, after the jump:

Another Guilds Group, Another Show...

Yet another guild has announced, and it's a favorite of mine: THE WRITERS GUILD! The Writers Guild is fun because every year they have a list of potential Oscar frontrunners that are deemed ineligible for their own prize, mostly something to do with registration or lack of guild membership or yada-yada-yada. For instance, Quentin Tarantino, one of the most distinct voices in screenwriting ever, has never been up for a WGA award because he refuses to join the guilds. That's a heads up, by the way: you won't find Django Unchained here, but don't expect that to impact its Oscar chances.
Because of this rule, though, we get to see work that otherwise wouldn't be so honored up for a nomination! And while no one wants to get in due to a technicality (ex.: no one wants to be crowned Mt. Rose American Teen Princess because of an exploding swan), they get to put "award-nominated screenwriter" on their resume. You know that's gotta feel good.

Producers to the Left, Art Directors to the Right

The Producers' Guild surprised everyone by announcing their nominees a day (or two?) early. Here are their nominees:

Awards Preliminary: The 2012 Longlists

It is a tradition, when I do my Hollmann Awards, to submit a longlist of contenders in each category beforehand. Inspired by the BAFTA tradition of same, the longlists not only allow me to gather my thoughts, but to highlight films and contributors that may not otherwise make my final ballot. You will, of course, find an entry for every one of my Top 25, but you will also see titles you may not expect -- Step Up: Revolution, Detention and The Guilt Trip are three films that I'm not necessarily mad about as a whole (ok, I'm totally in the tank for the bookenders), but whose strongest attributes I felt needed attention.

Except where noted, each category has 15 finalists.

CINEMANIACS: Road to Gold

So my best friend and I have this show called CINEMANIACS, and we did a "Road to Gold" show following the New York Film Critics' Circle and the National Board of Review. And now I'm posting it. It's kind of a dream come true, and I don't know how many of these we'll do, but take a look!

Globes Giveth (Kidman), Globes Taketh (Knightley)

SONG

For You - Act of Valor

Safe and Sound - The Hunger Games

Suddenly - Les Miserables

Skyfall - Skyfall

Not Running Anymore - Stand Up Guys

Stand Up Guys? The Taylor Swift song from Hunger Games? Act of Valor? Guys, the only proper response to the HFPA is limitless adoration.

SCORE

Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli

Argo - Alexandre Desplat

Cloud Atlas - Johnny Klimek/Reinhold Heil/Tom Tykwer

Life of Pi - Mychael Danna

Lincoln - John Williams

Finally, some love for Cloud Atlas! All very strong contenders; expect win for Karenina, Atlas or Pi. 

SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Tony Kushner, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Chris Terrio, Argo

Your usual suspects, with two counting as original (Zero, Django), and three as adapted. Still think Silver Linings Playbook is weak in the script department, but I better get used to this.

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL/COMEDY

Jack Black, Bernie

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

Surprised that Hyde Park on Hudson can be considered a movie; especially depressing considering that Tommy Lee Jones' performance in Hope Springs goes unrecognized. Abandoned by SAG, the BFCA, and now the HFPA. Woe to the man who does not campaign for the pre-September release.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Arkin, Hoffman and Jones are definite locks at this point, but Globes switch it up a bit by nominating both DiCaprio and Waltz for Django. I'm surprised they didn't go for De Niro in Silver Linings, but they do love their Tarantino actors.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Emmanuelle Riva looking more and more like the outsider looking in...unless she winds up as the surprise nominee come January 10. Keira Knightley's incredible performance in Anna Karenina is officially KIA. If she can't get support from the Globes, there's no hope left. Glad for Cotillard, though. And how about that Rachel Weisz!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

NICOLE KIDMAN. Oh my God, this is actually happening!

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Yeah, I had a feeling Salmon Fishing would be their cup of tea, showing up both here and in Actor. Dench, Lawrence and Streep were givens, but I see they made up to Smith for not nominating her in Supporting Actress. She actually is delightful in Quartet, but Hoffman (or his editor or someone) chose to cut away from a lot of her beats, undercutting some of her performance. 

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

It's official -- the HFPA likes The Master more than SAG.

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Well, of course the best-directed films must be the dramas! Held out hope for a nod for Wes Anderson, but screenplay was already crowded and he was a longshot for director. No nod for Tom Hooper, either, which is a surprise considering Les Miserables was the supposed front-runner a week ago.

I'm grateful for Dench, Cotillard, Team Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom and Nicole Kidman. I'm burning a candle for Anna Karenina and Cloud Atlas, two masterpieces that are more than their scores (not to look that gift horse in the mouth, though: deserved noms, both).

Actors Nomming Actors: SAG

The Screen Actors Guild nominees arrived this morning at (roughly) 5:55AM, PST. I had an alarm set and everything, almost falling back asleep with the thought, "Eh, it's just the Globes, I'll read everyone's take later." Which is wrong in many ways. What kind of monster would choose to sleep during the Globe nominees? Had I already forgotten last year, when announcer Woody Harrelson objected to Rampart's complete absence, and when Sofia Vergara Charo'd out with her pronunciation of Scorsese's name (Ma-reen Scor-sez)?

Not that that matters, because that's tomorrow. What matters is this: SCREEN ACTORS GUILD nominees!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

SURPRISE!: Bardem gets in for his Bond villain, the first time the franchise has been honored by any of the major guilds (WGA, DGA, PGA, SAG).

HOORAY: Bardem obviously, but even though they're pretty much locks, I'm always rooting for Hoffman and Jones in their respective films. I didn't care much for The Master, but I think Hoffman does a magnificent job of presenting the subtle manipulations and irrepressible charm of Lancaster Dodd, as well as the little weaknesses that weaken his own fortitude.

As for Jones in Lincoln: bad-ass. (You saw the Cinemaniacs review of Lincoln, right?)

MIA: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained); I blame the late arrival of the film, since Tarantino's flicks usually pick up some steam at these things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

SURPRISE!: Kidman gets in for her white trash sexed-up Barbie doll in Lee Daniels' dark, camp thriller The Paperboy.

HOORAY: SAG gave out pleasant surprises higgledy-piggledy this year: Kidman gave one of the strongest performances of the year (even if it isn't, in my mind, a supporting one). Also appreciate the continued love for Hunt's work in The Sessions, though hers is not a supporting performance either.

MIA: Ann Dowd (Compliance), Amy Adams (The Master), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Judi Dench (Skyfall)

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

SURPRISE!: None. For me, anyway. I know others were expecting Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, but I sure as hell wasn't.

HOORAY: No Phoenix!

MIA: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock), Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

SURPRISE!: This goes into MIA as well, but the absence of both Emmanuelle Riva and Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour surprised many today. I'm assuming that they weren't eligible, or at least unseen by the members of the nominating committee. Mirren and Watts making it in raised my eyebrows.

HOORAY: Cotillard, whose film I just saw last night, is superb.

MIA: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

BEST ENSEMBLE

Argo

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

SURPRISE!: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel!

HOORAY: Argo, Best Exotic, Lincoln and Silver Linings all boasted superlative casts with great chemistry; in some cases, they saved the movie (but you've seen the Cinemaniacs reviews of Silver Linings Playbook, right?). I haven't seen Les Mis, so only time will tell.

MIA: Strong ensemble work this year - Moonrise Kingdom, Magic Mike, Damsels in Distress, The Sessions, The Paperboy, and Cloud Atlas all deserved nods here, but I wouldn't know which of them to choose and which of these solid nominees to replace.

I'm Back; So Is Oscar

Is it time for that alfready? Of course it is. Nathaniel Rogers was the first to establish April Fool's Day as the start of Oscar predictions for the coming year, for what could be more follish than to try to guess the finalists eight months in advance? Well, he waved the green flag, so it's a go for all of us.

Last year, I did "eh" on my predictions, as per usual. It's difficult, sometimes, to see things like Midnight in Paris or The Artist coming -- especially since no one knew about the Hazanavicius until Cannes. But these were never about my predicting prowess. This is mainly about looking forward to the year ahead, much like my Top 25 Anticipated. There are films as yet unknown that will fill some of these spots; there are films seen here that will crash and burn. It happens. Until then, a guy can dream, can't he?

BEST PICTURE

The Gangster Squad

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Lincoln

The Master

Les Miserables

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

The Silver Linings Playbook

The Great Gatsby

Gravity

Because of that rule change, I've had to clarify my predictions here. Remember, it's five at the least, ten at the most, and everything in between, depending on how voting goes. Still, those first five are safe either way. The next five are ranked in order of likelihood, not to be taken seriously since it's only April. We are fools, aren't we?

Last year: 2/10 - The Tree of Life, War Horse

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby

Ruben Fleischer, The Gangster Squad

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

God, 2012 is looking to be such a strong year for my favorite filmmakers. I'm taking a chance and saying Luhrmann becomes the first director ever to be honored for Gatsby. Fleischer's probably the wildest card here, since his previous films are action-comedies: Zombieland, 30 Minutes or Less. Will Hooper score again? Will Anderson finally get his?

Last year: 1/5 - Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

BEST ACTRESS

Elizabeth Banks, People Like Us

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

Meryl Streep, Great Hope Springs

Despite that clunky-looking trailer, People Like Us boasts a central female role that attracted such Academy darlings as Amy Adams and Hilary Swank -- expect eventual star Banks to reap the rewards. Knightley and director Joe Wright are a superb combo, and I can only imagine the camp wonder that Kidman's femme fatale could bring to a Lee Daniels film. I'm less confident in my predictions for Bullock and Streep, and am half-tempted to throw in Seyfried for Lovelace...but I can't quite decide who to kick out for her. We'll see...

Last year: 3/5 - Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, The Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Surrogate

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Early buzz says John Hawkes is a shoo-in, and as Demian Bechir can attest, sometimes it's good to come out early. Day-Lewis as Lincoln seems as obvious a get as Morgan Freeman as Mandela. If ever this was going to happen for Jackman, it would have to be for a lead role in a musical -- if not now, when? Cooper's more or less my shot in the dark, yet I have a good feeling about it. And Hoffman as a charismatic religious leader for PTA....the only threat to his win (calm down, Walter, it's only April) is Hugh Jackman!

Last year: 2/5 - George Clooney, The Descendants; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master

Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Surrogate

Emma Stone, The Gangster Squad

Isn't Stone at the right age for an Oscar nom? You know they love 'em young... Speaking of, newcomer Barks will probably fill that STAR IS BORN slot, with a role as ripe for rewards as, say, Effie White? I'm following Surrogate buzz to include Hunt, and logic to include Adams -- she's their favorite supporting actress, it seems. Hathaway will probably win an Oscar someday, though I'm not going to declare it for Fantine just yet. Still, a nomination for Les Mis is a step in the right direction.

Last year: 0/5 - predicted Chastain for Tree of Life instead of The Help

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Russell Crowe, Les Miserables

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

James Gandolfini, Not Fade Away

John Goodman, Argo

Sean Penn, The Gangster Squad

Penn as Jewish mobster Mickey Cohen? Crowe as Inspector Javert? DiCaprio in a Tarantino flick? You'd be mad not to assume these three, at the very least, are getting in. Ben Affleck has gotten nominations for Amy Ryan and Jeremy Renner, so you know someone's getting in from Argo -- perhaps the never-nominated, always-beloved John Goodman? If the movie's any good, Gandolfini could get in for his New Jersey father whose son starts a rock band in the 60s. I admit, though, he's probably my least certain choice.

Last year: 1/5 - Christopher Plummer, Beginners

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Brave - Brenda Chapman, Irene Mecchi

Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino

The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson

Not Fade Away - David Chase

The Surrogate - Ben Lewin

Pixar returns triumphant after Cars 2, Tarantino's words work their magic, Lewin for the indie slot, David Chase is welcomed (partly for The Sopranos, let's be real), and director Anderson takes it.

Last year: 0/5 - this bodes well

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Anna Karenina - Tom Stoppard

The Gangster Squad - Will Beall

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo del Toro

Les Miserables - William Nicholson

The Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Best Picture nominees, plus Anna Karenina!

Last year: 1/5 - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

If there's one question mark, it's Inside Llewyn Davis, scheduled for a tentative 2013 release which could turn into a late 2012. We'll see.