Another Guilds Group, Another Show...

Yet another guild has announced, and it's a favorite of mine: THE WRITERS GUILD! The Writers Guild is fun because every year they have a list of potential Oscar frontrunners that are deemed ineligible for their own prize, mostly something to do with registration or lack of guild membership or yada-yada-yada. For instance, Quentin Tarantino, one of the most distinct voices in screenwriting ever, has never been up for a WGA award because he refuses to join the guilds. That's a heads up, by the way: you won't find Django Unchained here, but don't expect that to impact its Oscar chances.
Because of this rule, though, we get to see work that otherwise wouldn't be so honored up for a nomination! And while no one wants to get in due to a technicality (ex.: no one wants to be crowned Mt. Rose American Teen Princess because of an exploding swan), they get to put "award-nominated screenwriter" on their resume. You know that's gotta feel good.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Flight - John Gatins

Looper - Rian Johnson

The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson

Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal

Big news, I think, for Rian Johnson's Looper, which has quietly yet steadily been building steam in this category, beginning with the National Board of Review. Meanwhile, this seemed almost a given for the Andersons, Wes and Paul Thomas, since their writing has always been more honored than their directing. Yet I can't help but feel The Master might not make it to the Big Show, since it's so much more of  director's piece than a writer's one. Expect either that or Flight (the weakest nominee here, though not a terrible one at that) to go MIA for Django, maybe both if Amour gets in.

PREDICTED WINNER: Zero Dark Thirty

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo - Chris Terrio

Life of Pi - David Magee

Lincoln - Tony Kushner

The Perks of Being a Wallflower - Stephen Chbosky

Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Unless I'm going through some dementia-related lapses, there is no other title I can think of that could displace the nominee you see here, three of which are quite strong (I'd immediately replace Silver Linings with Cloud Atlas, but perhaps I'm alone on that one). Perks of Being a Wallflower is the only title not connected with an Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture, but it's such a strong, beautiful piece of work that to not recognize it would be...insane. And this really seems like anyone's game at this point.

PREDICTED WINNER: Lincoln