Super Last-Minute Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

 

It's the most up-in-the-air category this season, making for one of the most exciting Best Picture races in history. Best Picture is decided by a preferential ballot system that I am not going to explain but recommend you look up, which for many means that the least divisive nominee with the most fans wins - thus, The Shape of Water, which few dislike and which won the big prize at the PGA Awards and DGA Awards. But each Oscar year tends to follow a pattern, meaning your Best Picture winner is most likely whoever's won the most going in - thus, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, which triumphed at the SAG Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTA Awards. But also, the past four winners first triumphed in the Best Film category at the Independent Spirit Awards - thus, Get Out, which just became the latest to win that honor on the eve of the Academy Awards.

(twists and turns, after the jump....)

The Nominees Are....

Here we go!

I swear this is my favorite morning. Beats Christmas every time, no matter how frustrating it sometimes is.

Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis hosting the announcement, as the Academy continues trying new things to make this more of an event.

Nominees after the jump.....

Oscar Predictions

The nominees for the 90th Academy Awards are announced tomorrow! Here's who I think gets in...

Best Picture

Number of Nominees: 8 (getting that right is worth a point)

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible spoiler: The Florida Project (half a point if it gets in)

In My Dreams: The Lost City of Z

The remaining categories after the jump.....

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Jordan Peele, Get Out

In My Dreams: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

In My Dreams: Charlie Hunnam in The Lost City of Z

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

In My Dreams: Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Rob Morgan in Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: Jennifer Ehle in A Quiet Passion

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name

The Disaster Artist

The Lost City of Z

Molly's Game

Mudbound

Best Score

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: Jane

Best Original Song

Beauty and the Beast - "Evermore"

Call Me By Your Name - "Visions of Gideon"

Coco - "Remember Me"

The Greatest Showman - "This Is Me"

Mudbound - "Mighty River"

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: First They Killed My Father

Best Production Design

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

The Shape of Water

In My Dreams: mother!

Best Film Editing

Dunkirk

Get Out
I, Tonya

The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

In My Dreams: Jane

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

The Greatest Showman

Phantom Thread

Victoria and Abdul

In My Dreams: Battle of the Sexes

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bright

Darkest Hour

Wonder

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Best Sound Mixing

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman - Chile

In the Fade - Germany

Loveless - Russia

The Square - Sweden

The Wound - South Africa

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

The LEGO Batman Movie

Loving Vincent

Best Documentary

Chasing Coral

City of Ghosts

Faces Places

Icarus

Jane

No idea with the animated shorts, so I just kind of threw darts...

Best Animated Short

"Cradle"

"Fox and the Whale"

"In the Heartbeat"

"Lost Property Office"

"Negative Space"

Best Documentary Short

"116 Cameras"

"Alone"

"Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405"

"Heroin(e)"

"Ten Meter Tower"

Best Live Action Short

"DeKalb Elementary"

"Facing Mecca"

"My Nephew Emmett"

"Rise of a Star"

"The Silent Child"

I am very much looking forward to being completely and woefully wrong tomorrow!

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Who's Getting A Globe?

The 75th Golden Globes are tonight! I have seen all but nine of the movies nominated - Jesus, when I see that number, it feels like a lot. Oh, well.

Anyway, in the 14 film categories: what will win, and what deserves to win? Let's go through it!

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: The Shape of Water. You wouldn't think the human-monster love story would be the least divisive movie of any lineup, but 2017 was full of surprises.

Should win: The Post. Solid studio filmmaking, stellar cast, surprisingly fun.

WHO WON: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Goddamn.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name. I don't see a lot stopping his awards season momentum. People love him! And while Gary Oldman's playing Winston Churchill, if the HFPA liked him, this probably wouldn't be his first nomination.

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread. So petty! So hilarious!

WHO WON: Boy was I wrong! Oldman wins!

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water. Even though Frances McDormand may be overdue for a win from the Globes (it's never happened!), the group's international makeup will probably benefit Hawkins, who also won their Musical/Comedy prize for Happy-Go-Lucky nine years ago.

Should win: Hawkins. Besides the rest of that mishegas above, she's also really fucking good in her movie. This and Maudie are great showcases for her superlative physicality.

WHO WON: Ai-yi-yi, McDormand.

Comedy categories and more, after the jump....

SAG Award Nominations

The film nominees for the Screen Actors Guild Awards, as announced this morning by the very giddy duo of Olivia Munn and Niecy Nash.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

My predictions: 3/5 - Octavia Spencer missed out, which surprises me; so did Julia Roberts, but I knew that was a risky prediction. Four of these ladies also showed up on the Golden Globes' lineup; the real winner, in spirit, is Holly Hunter.

More surprises, after the jump.

Predictably SAGgy

The nominations for the Screen Actirs Guild Awards will be announced tomorrow. How about some predictions?

Best Ensemble

Lady Bird

Mudbound

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Not having seen The Post, I can only say that it's a hell of a cast they've assembled. My other four picks are all films where you really feel the community of characters on-screen - not just the headliners who will get their names on the official nominee roster, but the bit characters, too. The brother's girlfriend in Lady Bird, the neighbor losing her mind in Mudbound, the meek security man in The Shape of Water, the black chief in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri: they are all indelible to their films and stories, all brought to vivid life by their actors. That's what makes for an Outstanding Cast.

The remainder, after the jump

Further Thoughts On The Golden Globes

Scattered, more detailed thoughts on those Golden Globe nominations, and what they mean for Awards Season overall...

1) A lot of people are stunned and angry about Jordan Peele's absence from the Best Director lineup at the Golden Globes. I will be shocked if he actually winds up nominated at the DGAs or the Oscars. That's nothing to do with the quality of his work; there's a reason why it's sustained its level of hype from February, and not just because it captures The Moment in terms of our current conversations regarding race and whiteness - it's because of the craftsmanship, the originality. Still, while Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay nominations are all but guaranteed, Peele's working in a genre seldom given due at the Oscars. Besides, it's a crowded field in general: Guillermo del Toro, Steven Spielberg, Luca Guadagnino, Sean Baker, Martin McDonagh, Paul Thomas Anderson, Greta Gerwig, Ridley Scott, Dee Rees. Peele's a more likely nominee than a good chunk of this group, but with no consensus yet on even the top three frontrunners, he's got hurdles.

Talking 'bout Wonder Woman, Three Billboards, and more, after the jump....

Golden Globe Nominees

It doesn't really feel like Awards Season until the Golden Globes make their announcement, you know? Sure, sure: National Board of Review and critics' groups are important and great time capsules for the year, but they just have winners; the Globes have nominees, suspense, anticipation! And oh, always a surprise...

I concern myself only with the film categories, beginning after the jump....

Maybe It's Me, But....

Thor: Ragnarok's abrasively absurdist/jocular tone is annoying, condescending - we're the fun one, we can take the piss, check out this soft-spoken polite rock monster, Loki's such a twat, haw-haw-haw. Marvel films already feel like filler; this one's an aside within a footnote. Cate Blanchett's villain and her whole plot are approached with shrugging obligation. But boy oh boy, the score by Mark Mothersbaugh is one of the best of the year, the one element that truly grounds the fun in emotional resonance. (dir: Taika Waititi, scr:  Eric Pearson and Craig Kyle & Christopher L. Yost, based on the comics by Stan Lee & Larry Lieber and Jack Kirby)

The latest from Denzel and Julia Roberts after the jump....