Oscar 2015: What Will Win, What Should Win

The 88th Annual Academy Awards are tonight! It's basically New Year's Eve for me and many others, a sentiment expressed many times by The Film Experience, but also texted to me by friends and said out loud by co-workers.

I've told you what I'd want to win in a perfect world -- let's talk about what I think will win in the actual one.

BEST PICTURE: The Revenant
My personal rankings for the nominees:
1. Spotlight (*****)
2. Brooklyn (*****)
3. The Revenant (****)
4. Mad Max: Fury Road (****)
5. Bridge of Spies (****)
6. The Martian (*** 1/2)
7. The Big Short (***)
8. Room (**)

Complete predictions, and rankings, after the jump...

Predicting Tomorrow's Oscar Noms!

Ok, folks. I know I've been unusually mum about this Awards Season (with the exception of a theory that I'm about to place a lot of faith in). But it's to talk the Oscar Nominations. They are tomorrow. That is exciting. It's time to predict things.

I'm not in rooms with industry members who are "buzzing." I've been following the guilds and the Globes, but most of us seem to agree there's a general mix of consensus and confusion. Here, then, is how I think it could go down.

I have no clue with Foreign Film, Animated, Doc, or shorts. Don't ask me.

BEST PICTURE
Anywhere between five and ten nominees. I'm thinking ten.

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

BEST DIRECTOR
The exact DGA lineup.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

More predictions, after the jump

2015 in Review: The Longlists

Before I announce the nominees for the Hollmann Awards, it's traditional that I provide the long lists: the 15 finalists in each category. It's great fun for Best Picture, because now that you know my Top Ten, you can see the five films that almost made it in! And it also allows you to see the full breadth of films I'm considering, from Carol to Mortdecai.

BEST PICTURE

The Beauty Inside
Best of Enemies
Brooklyn
Carol
Creed
Girlhood
Grandma
Joy
Our Brand is Crisis
Paddington
The Revenant
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Tangerine
The Throne

Remaining semi-finalists after the jump

SAG Award Wackiness!

Everybody's calling this morning nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards weird. I'm one of them. But let's be clear -- what we really mean is that few of the pre-ordained "front-runners" were included. The nominating committee, the members of which change every year, voted with their hearts, and it took everyone by surprise. For me, the system worked -- even if there are nominations that drive me absolutely crazy.

I'll get to the movies in a bit, but re: television: no Grace and Frankie and no Empire make me very skeptical of this year's committee. That's all I'm gonna say.

Ok. So.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I told y'all Mirren was in. Told. Y'all. In fact, I successfully called four of the nominees, missing out on McAdams. Indeed, McAdams placement gave me hope for the rest of her cast, which made the next set of nominees a shocker.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Not a Spotlight to be found, and the nods for Bale and Shannon left me shocked SHOCKED.

ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Here's the thing. Kristopher Tapley pointed out that, except for The Revenant, all these films screened for SAG before November. And Leo doesn't always get nominated at the SAG Awards. So the fact that they went out of their way to nominate him tells me this really could be his year, though part of me is still holding out for a Fassbender surprise.

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Sarah Silverman! Good for you, girl! Work that nod into something more! But everyone needs to calm down with the Mirren love. I gave you The Last Station. I put up with Hitchcock. I predicted Trumbo because why not? But I will not stand for Woman in Gold.

ENSEMBLE
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Ooh, they loved Trumbo, didn't they? I was surprised with how much I liked it, though it isn't a movie I think about often. Very very very happy about Spotlight and Straight Outta Compton. But boy does this lineup remind me of 2007 -- remember that? No Country for Old Men won against 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Hairspray and Into the Wild.

***KEEP EVERYTHING BELOW THIS MESSAGE AT THE BOTTOM OF EACH POST - DELETE MESSAGE BEFORE POSTING**
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