Predicting Tomorrow's Oscar Noms!

Ok, folks. I know I've been unusually mum about this Awards Season (with the exception of a theory that I'm about to place a lot of faith in). But it's to talk the Oscar Nominations. They are tomorrow. That is exciting. It's time to predict things.

I'm not in rooms with industry members who are "buzzing." I've been following the guilds and the Globes, but most of us seem to agree there's a general mix of consensus and confusion. Here, then, is how I think it could go down.

I have no clue with Foreign Film, Animated, Doc, or shorts. Don't ask me.

BEST PICTURE
Anywhere between five and ten nominees. I'm thinking ten.

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

BEST DIRECTOR
The exact DGA lineup.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

More predictions, after the jump

First Half of 2015

A brief look at the film year so far.

I've only seen 38 films so far this year (not counting the retrospective flicks, of course), which is fewer than I had hoped -- though, if recent conversations are any indication, far more than the average. I mean, someone told me the last movie they saw in a theater was Gravity!

These are unranked choices, but they are grouped together in ascending order of affection. Directors and commentary follow each title, except in "Shan't See It Again", a sort-of Hall of Shame -- the guilty are protected in this instance.

Shan't See It Again 

Aloha
Child 44
The Con Artists
San Andreas
Seventh Son
Woman in Gold

Wish They Were Better

Fifty Shades of Grey (Sam Taylor-Johnson): Dakota Johnson a natural, goofy yet convincingly sexy, with a soundtrack that's on point; but Jamie Dornan is a wasteland, and the finale is ho-hummingly tame

Jupiter Ascending (The Wachowskis): fascinating world-building, but clearly hacked to pieces, and with a wan Mila Kunis at its center

Jurassic World (Colin Trevorrow): great fun as a monsters-run-amok flick (and I consider That Death a huge plus), but script is aggressively regressive re: sexual politics

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (Alfonso Gomez-Rejon): surprisingly unsentimental lead a relief; in fact, most of the ensemble shines and convinces, despite suffocatingly twee conceits and sketchily-written adults

Serena (Susanne Bier): J-Law understated, intense, hypnotic; film should be a slow burn but it's actually a long sit

Guilty Pleasures

The Boy Next Door (Rob Cohen): deliciously scandalous, and it must be said: J.Lo is genuinely phenom in this

Mortdecai (David Koepp): I laughed more than once, love the song "Johanna" that plays over the end credits, and I think everyone should be aware that I am always Team Gwyneth

Positivity after the jump -- or as I like to call it, the Cold Stone Rankings.