My Oscar Predictions, 2018 Edition

My final predictions for the 91st Academy Awards in all 24 categories, in three acts.

Act One: No Dog in This Fight (or, i ain't seen all these)

Animated Short - "Bao"
Documentary Short - "Period. End of Sentence."
Live Action Short - "Skin"
Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature - Free Solo
Foreign Language Film - Roma
Original Song - "Shallow" from A Star is Born
Visual Effects - First Man
Makeup and Hairstyling - Vice
Cinematography - Roma

Act Two: Opinions, I Have Them (or, the ol' will win/should win game)

Sound Mixing - Bohemian Rhapsody (should win: Roma)
Sound Editing - Bohemian Rhapsody (should win: First Man)
Costume Design - Black Panther (should win: The Favourite, but I'd be down with Black Panther)
Film Editing - Vice (should win: BlacKkKlansman)
Production Design - The Favourite (should win: The Favourite)

The final act after the jump...

Best Picture, Some Surprises: 2015 Hollmann Awards, Day Three

At last -- the final round of Hollmann Awards! Let's get to it!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

5. Tangerine
Sean Baker/Chris Bergoch

Quotable, dirty, hilarious. A great odyssey spanning Hollywood, with all the characters you really do see on the streets -- the trans prostitutes, the old men with bizarre stories, the Armenian cabbies, the shady guys who hang out at donut shops. It works as a Christmas movie, a buddy film, a drama about the immigrant experience.

4. The Throne
Jo Chul-hyun/Lee Song-won/Oh Seung-hyun

Takes a much-contested bit of history -- was Prince Sado sentenced to die because he went crazy, or was he the target of a court conspiracy -- and turns it into a story of fathers and sons, of legacies that are expected to endure, of the terrible expectations of royal life and the consequences that come of disappointing those. And, yes, it also addresses the unrest in the Joseon royal court. Sympathetic to all...and honey, with this group, that's not always easy.

3. Girlhood
Céline Sciamma

Surprising developments, subtle layering, and a completely non-judgmental look at these girls and their gangs. Kudos for those few and far between, yet vital and impactful, sequences that establish the patriarchal system that these seemingly independent women have given themselves over to. Props, too, for the gradual way in which our heroine becomes a part of that system, neither "male" nor "female", but someone with her own agency. Complicated, but easy to understand.

2. Grandma
Paul Weitz

Hilarious, biting, intelligent. Avoids dialogue that's too clever -- and when it is, that's part of the joke ("solipsist!"). Not a false note. Sees every side of a conversation, and even if the film is decidedly pro-choice, the argument it makes for one character not supporting that is...well, it's understandable. And human.

1. Spotlight
Tom McCarthy/Josh Singer

Can I just say, it would be so easy for each of these characters to become similar  -- journalist, victim, advocate, co-conspirator/part of the problem -- but each person is an individual. That's what this screenplay excels at -- making us appreciate the individuals, putting a face, a name, a personality to the cipher of "abuse victim" or "corrupted clergyman". It even allows us to look at our heroes' shortcomings, as they face their own denial...and their tendency to look at human tragedies as "scoops".

Score, Actress, Best Picture, and more after the jump

Casting Coup Month: Shampoo

NOMINATIONS

Best Supporting Actor - Jack Warden

Best Supporting Actress - Lee Grant (WON)

Best Writing, Original Screenplay - Robert Towne/Warren Beatty

Best Art Direction-Set Decoration - Richard Sylbert/W. Stewart Campbell/George Gaines

It's OK to admit that I don't "get" Shampoo, right?