Dolemite is My Name
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
The Last Thing He Wanted
Little Women
Little Women
The Laundromat
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Yesterday
Five and a half true stories: Dolemite is My Name (biopic of Rudy Ray Moore), Ford v. Ferrari (about the competition between the titular companies for Le Mans 1966), The Irishman (Scorsese and De Niro return to gangster drama), The Laundromat (Panama Papers), Untitled Todd Haynes Project (lawyer takes on polluting chemical company) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino's riff on Hollywood '69 - fiction, but with real people as players). We also have possible crowdpleaser Yesterday, Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women, Dee Rees' adaptation of Joan Didion's The Last Thing He Wanted, and Pedro Almodovar's showbiz drama Pain and Glory. We'll know soon enough if Pain & Glory or Yesterday have "the goods", as the former is premiering at Cannes and the latter comes out at the end of June.
Last year, I correctly predicted two of the nine eventual nominees: Roma and Vice.
Predictions in six more categories after the jump....
Director
James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari
Last year, I correctly predicted two of the nine eventual nominees: Roma and Vice.
Predictions in six more categories after the jump....
Director
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
Todd Haynes, Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Todd Haynes, Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Dee Rees, The Last Thing He Wanted
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
On paper, Haynes' project seems less queer than his usual output - so naturally, that will be the thing that finally gets him some recognition from the Academy. Mangold feels like he will eventually get his due - why not for Ford v. Ferrari? Could Dee Rees make history as the first woman of color to be nominated in this category for The Last Thing He Wanted? Possibly! While Scorsese's last long-gestating passion project was met with a sniff (Silence, you deserved better!), I could never count him out - not when he's re-teaming with De Niro! My wild card slot goes to Almodovar. We'll see what happens at Cannes.
Last year, I correctly predicted two of the five eventual nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (who won!) and Adam McKay.
Actor
Actress
True to the Academy's usual behavior, I'm predicting most of the nominees here to be from non-Best Picture nominees. I'm also predicting a watershed moment for black representation. I'm also predicting more previous nominees than usual, but since one of them is the long-delayed return of Alfre Woodard, I think it's OK. Cynthia Erivo as Harriet Tubman seems like an on-paper can't-miss. Jodie Turner Smith is my big Wild Card, but why not?
Last year, I correctly predicted only one of the five eventual nominees: Melissa McCarthy. BUT, I also predicted Marina de Tavira, albeit in the wrong category. Gimme a half point for that one!
Supporting Actor
You can't go wrong predicting real people: Jon Bernthal as Lee Iacocca, Mike Epps as Jimmy Lynch, John Lithgow as Roger Ailes, Matthew Rhys as Lloyd Vogel. You can't go wrong predicting a co-lead: Matthew Rhys. You can't go wrong predicting a father: Willem Dafoe. Let's see how many ways I've gone wrong...
Last year, I correctly predicted only one of the five eventual nominees: Sam Rockwell.
Supporting Actress
This was truly the crap-shoot category. I just know it felt right to predict these five.
Last year, I correctly predicted two of the five eventual nominees: Amy Adams and Regina King (the winner).
Original Screenplay
Last year, I correctly predicted three of the five eventual nominees: The Favourite, Roma and Vice.
Adapted Screenplay
Last year, I correctly predicted one of the five eventual nominees: If Beale Street Could Talk.
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Last year, I correctly predicted two of the five eventual nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (who won!) and Adam McKay.
Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Mark Ruffalo, Untitled Todd Haynes Movie
I'm taking a chance by not predicting Bale, but I feel like after being such a consistent presence, they'll eventually take a break - even if his movie is a big player otherwise. Instead, I'm predicting the returns of past winner De Niro and previous nominees Ian McKellen (as a con-man), Eddie Murphy (as actor Rudy Ray Moore) and Mark Ruffalo (as an environmental lawyer). That leaves Antonio Banderas as the first-timer, playing a film director reflecting on his life - a subject that I'm sure many in the Academy will find appealing, as well as a showcase for an actor who's put in the work.
Last year, I correctly predicted only one of the five eventual nominees: Christian Bale.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Anne Hathaway, The Last Thing He Wanted
Jodie Turner Smith, Queen & Slim
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Renee Zellweger, Judy
True to the Academy's usual behavior, I'm predicting most of the nominees here to be from non-Best Picture nominees. I'm also predicting a watershed moment for black representation. I'm also predicting more previous nominees than usual, but since one of them is the long-delayed return of Alfre Woodard, I think it's OK. Cynthia Erivo as Harriet Tubman seems like an on-paper can't-miss. Jodie Turner Smith is my big Wild Card, but why not?
Last year, I correctly predicted only one of the five eventual nominees: Melissa McCarthy. BUT, I also predicted Marina de Tavira, albeit in the wrong category. Gimme a half point for that one!
Supporting Actor
Jon Bernthal, Ford v. Ferrari
Willem Dafoe, The Last Thing He Wanted
Mike Epps, Dolemite is My Name
John Lithgow, Untitled Roger Ailes Project
Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
You can't go wrong predicting real people: Jon Bernthal as Lee Iacocca, Mike Epps as Jimmy Lynch, John Lithgow as Roger Ailes, Matthew Rhys as Lloyd Vogel. You can't go wrong predicting a co-lead: Matthew Rhys. You can't go wrong predicting a father: Willem Dafoe. Let's see how many ways I've gone wrong...
Last year, I correctly predicted only one of the five eventual nominees: Sam Rockwell.
Supporting Actress
Zazie Beetz, Against All Enemies
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Little Women
Dakota Fanning, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Charlize Theron, Untitled Roger Ailes Project
Last year, I correctly predicted two of the five eventual nominees: Amy Adams and Regina King (the winner).
Original Screenplay
Dolemite is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Untitled Todd Haynes
Yesterday
Last year, I correctly predicted three of the five eventual nominees: The Favourite, Roma and Vice.
Adapted Screenplay
Ford v. Ferrari
The Good Liar
The Irishman
The Last Thing He Wanted
The Laundromat
Last year, I correctly predicted one of the five eventual nominees: If Beale Street Could Talk.
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