The March of Inevitability: Best Supporting Actor, 2000

Was there any beating Benicio del Toro for Best Supporting Actor?

Realistically, probably not. From the moment people started seeing Traffic, the name was on the trophy, with critics like Kenneth Turan immediately singling him out as the film's best performance. Come awards time, he collected a haul of hosannas from the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, LA Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, and the Screen Actors Guild. His SAG win was particularly miraculous, considering they bumped him up to the Lead Actor category, suggesting that the industry was eager to award that performance no matter where it was placed (it's also indicative of the lack of a real frontrunner in Lead Actor throughout the season).

As tends to be the case with Best Supporting Actor, the Oscar Five was a done deal for a while. The BAFTAs nominated Billy Elliot's Gary Lewis and Gladiator's Oliver Reed, but those were very British decisions: Lewis's performance wasn't a standout here the way young discovery Jamie Bell or previous Oscar nominee Julie Walters were, while, as Inside Oscar 2 describes it, the idea of anyone else nominating Reed, who died during that film's production and whose performance was "completed" with the use of CGI, was too morbid to consider. Some critics' groups, including NYFCC and NSFC, made mention of Fred Willard's hilarious turn in Best in Show, but always as an also-ran, not the winner. And The Contender's villain Gary Oldman filled the SAG slot left vacant by Del Toro's promotion, but his public feud with the film's director Rod Lurie and distributor DreamWorks, plus his reported insistence that he campaign as Lead, left a sour taste in many Academy members' mouths, even if the performance is that film's best.

So no, there was no disrupting the quintet of Del Toro, Oldman's co-star Jeff Bridges, surprise possible upset Willem Dafoe of Shadow of the Vampire, early favorite Albert Finney of Erin Brockovich, and the acclaimed Joaquin Phoenix of Gladiator. And there was no disrupting Del Toro's march to Oscar victory:

Here's how I'd rank them, had I a ballot:

Who's Getting A Globe?

The 75th Golden Globes are tonight! I have seen all but nine of the movies nominated - Jesus, when I see that number, it feels like a lot. Oh, well.

Anyway, in the 14 film categories: what will win, and what deserves to win? Let's go through it!

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: The Shape of Water. You wouldn't think the human-monster love story would be the least divisive movie of any lineup, but 2017 was full of surprises.

Should win: The Post. Solid studio filmmaking, stellar cast, surprisingly fun.

WHO WON: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Goddamn.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name. I don't see a lot stopping his awards season momentum. People love him! And while Gary Oldman's playing Winston Churchill, if the HFPA liked him, this probably wouldn't be his first nomination.

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread. So petty! So hilarious!

WHO WON: Boy was I wrong! Oldman wins!

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Will win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water. Even though Frances McDormand may be overdue for a win from the Globes (it's never happened!), the group's international makeup will probably benefit Hawkins, who also won their Musical/Comedy prize for Happy-Go-Lucky nine years ago.

Should win: Hawkins. Besides the rest of that mishegas above, she's also really fucking good in her movie. This and Maudie are great showcases for her superlative physicality.

WHO WON: Ai-yi-yi, McDormand.

Comedy categories and more, after the jump....

It Came True: Murder on the Orient Express, 2017

The day has finally come! I have seen a brand new Agatha Christie movie in the theater! Did it do the Queen of Crime justice? How did it compare to the many other versions we've watched and discussed? Was it any good? My dears, it's the exciting conclusion of Murder on the Orient Express week!

Murder on the Orient Express (2017)

dir: Kenneth Branagh

Class of '86: Nervous Sigourney and Best Supporting Actor

Supporting Actor is interesting this year, in that it seems, to me, to consist entirely of the B Squad. Not to deride the accomplishments of these fine men, but most of them aren't even the Best Supporting Actors in their own films, much less of the whole year. The one actor I would argue belongs here is Dennis Hopper, and he's nominated for the wrong movie!

On Oscar night, Jeff Bridges and Sigourney Weaver presented - remember, the previous year's winners teamed up to do Best Supporting Actress - and good Lord people, could it be that presenter banter has actually gotten better in the 30 years since? Were they ad-libbing? Sigourney seems nervous, which is understandable; even though this is her third Oscars as a presenter, it's her first as a nominee, and Best Actress is still to come.

Then comes the anticlimax of a no-show winner - but fortunately, Weaver knows Caine, having worked with him in Half Moon Street, just released the previous September. So it's a sweet moment.

Anyways, after the jump, the nominees - the adulterer of Hannah and Her Sisters, the recovering alcoholic of Hoosiers, the dueling sergeants of Platoon, and the retired journalist of A Room with a View....